Dota2 · resolved market
Nigma Galaxy to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4514e256cbadd69079e269fea55311499569876992685df9c6f23301a56095b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe548…a9febacked No | 34c | 2,563$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.26 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed No | 32c | 2,100$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.98 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Yes | 67c | 1,427$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.08 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2776…4ecbbacked Yes | 68c | 1,402$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.53 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed No | 14c | 1,223$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.66 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 20c | 1,060$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.37 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 66c | 896$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.64 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 32c | 888$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.16 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 864.25$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.19 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Yes | 72c | 695.12$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.12 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Yes | 67c | 592.63$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.63 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 33c | 585$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.57 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Yes | 67c | 582.16$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.11 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…fd36backed No | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed No | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 291 | 43.6%127 W · 164 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 69c | 402.94$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.85 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 18c | 399.25$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 66c | 398.36$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.44 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Yes | 68c | 349.99$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.5 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked No | 32c | 328.55$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.56 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed No | 33c | 302.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Yes | 67c | 297.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 25c | 272.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Yes | 75c | 250$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 33c | 215$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked No | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…48cabacked Yes | 66c | 193.29$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…0566backed Yes | 67c | 178.57$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…b0f8backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a6…cf4bbacked Yes | 70c | 141.43$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…bcb1backed Yes | 66c | 125$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 33c | 124.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed No | 33c | 115.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…7f01backed Yes | 67c | 112.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aee…8c24backed Yes | 67c | 104.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed No | 30c | 99.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 253 | 54.5%138 W · 115 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 68c | 82.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…62c7backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 207 | 63.3%131 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Yes | 67c | 62.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4802…c8e1backed Yes | 69c | 57.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 180 | 63.9%115 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Yes | 68c | 43.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Yes | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked No | 32c | 34.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 33c | 33.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4358…3e76backed No | 34c | 31.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…05f4backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 132 | 68.2%90 W · 42 L | +10.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xceea…ec81backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…866ebacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…052cbacked Yes | 66c | 27.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +90%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked Yes | 66c | 20.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 447 | 71.1%318 W · 129 L | +27.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…ae1fbacked Yes | 68c | 17.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nigma Galaxy to win 2-0?this page
- Level UP to win 2-0?No won
- Level UP vs Nigma Galaxy: Draw (1-1)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.