TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Aurora, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$125,749
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$151,117

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,749 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9eca…5a59backed Aurora57c15,767$8,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,838.7340051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8479…40dfbacked Aurora54c8,491$4,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,940.210751.4%55 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Liquid44c8,141$3,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,599.2845750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Aurora49c7,966$3,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,083.8242650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Liquid34c5,399$1,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.4796645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Aurora57c4,798$2,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,051.2896357.3%552 W · 411 L+48.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Liquid32c3,865$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.3739660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Team Liquid52c3,846$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00071454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Aurora54c3,691$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,690.511,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Liquid47c3,684$1,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.021,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked Aurora52c3,500$1,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,684.5410646.2%49 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Liquid46c3,453$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.961,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Liquid46c3,354$1,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.731,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Team Liquid49c3,271$1,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.9739343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Liquid46c3,239$1,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,497.021,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Team Liquid20c3,040$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.6450832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed Team Liquid51c2,750$1,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,402.522647.3%107 W · 119 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Aurora51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.9936547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Team Liquid47c1,688$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.6344645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Aurora80c1,468$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.7377256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Liquid44c1,384$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.5956348.1%271 W · 292 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Liquid45c1,356$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.881,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Team Liquid47c1,246$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.6237945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Team Liquid47c1,158$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.2632652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2efa…8a01backed Team Liquid49c1,094$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.083943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Aurora68c964.73$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.411,69141.4%700 W · 991 L-40.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x948a…d1a4backed Aurora57c950.22$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.6324154.8%132 W · 109 L+13.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Aurora55c881.59$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.5661745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Team Liquid47c842.39$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.199935.4%35 W · 64 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Team Liquid46c746.29$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.5617146.2%79 W · 92 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa271…f308backed Team Liquid46c680$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x361b…046cbacked Aurora53c680$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x758f…dfb7backed Aurora61c660.93$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.9334667.9%235 W · 111 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x581f…9d8ebacked Team Liquid49c612.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009242.4%39 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6db2…1338backed Aurora51c600$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2941145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Team Liquid30c600$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.191756.5%518 W · 399 L+79.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Team Liquid48c600$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.1274549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde3c…9656backed Team Liquid48c599.99$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2881060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Team Liquid49c530$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.750749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Team Liquid47c526.44$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25042145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Aurora54c521.84$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.0399844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Team Liquid45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2251,24744.4%554 W · 693 L+17.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Aurora46c494$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.7694442.3%399 W · 545 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Liquid28c473$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.661,11336.2%403 W · 710 L-37.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8106…bd36backed Team Liquid46c471.59$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.938056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Aurora55c456.4$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.3886659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea8…0412backed Aurora55c450.46$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.198946.1%41 W · 48 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Aurora52c450$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21647450.8%241 W · 233 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked Team Liquid48c417$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1616541.2%68 W · 97 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Team Liquid40c401.35$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.0853139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Aurora49c400$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20461548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89bd…cc95backed Aurora54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1843844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Liquid37c395$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.151,89447.7%903 W · 991 L+6.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x443c…d83abacked Aurora52c379.15$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.9925851.2%132 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0c…51dbbacked Team Liquid27c359.26$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975950.8%30 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Aurora49c306.47$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.4786451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe66e…946bbacked Aurora52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.1821043.8%92 W · 118 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Aurora61c288.78$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.311,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Aurora52c288.11$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.1196245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed Team Liquid47c275.63$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8116242.6%69 W · 93 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Liquid44c271.59$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.331,15147.8%550 W · 601 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Liquid43c270.65$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.051,44348.7%703 W · 740 L+29.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f79…434abacked Team Liquid20c250$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.949644.6%221 W · 275 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48ba…d81dbacked Team Liquid23c249.11$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6256343.9%247 W · 316 L-1.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb953…5393backed Team Liquid49c230$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.72853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Team Liquid36c209.56$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2737223.1%86 W · 286 L-38.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Aurora53c207.24$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.482441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Liquid47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9480742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd439…21d3backed Aurora52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3131644.9%142 W · 174 L-18.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Aurora77c191.59$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9788938%338 W · 551 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed Aurora52c175$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8458156.6%329 W · 252 L+27.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3216…0cc7backed Aurora65c150$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.53754.1%20 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x953e…79ffbacked Aurora49c150$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7628050%140 W · 140 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Team Liquid29c143$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9425935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Aurora71c132.62$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.463941%16 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Aurora70c125$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0569033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Liquid34c111.49$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.032,36747.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L+17.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Aurora45c109$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.952,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Team Liquid46c104.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.118544.9%83 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed Aurora50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5011131.5%35 W · 76 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Team Liquid46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4626846.6%125 W · 143 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked Team Liquid49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4966648.6%324 W · 342 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Aurora55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4567555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Aurora55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4565863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed Aurora55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4537655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb829…4f5ebacked Aurora77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2317636.9%65 W · 111 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked Aurora48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5258250.5%294 W · 288 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked Aurora48c99.8$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.89543.2%41 W · 54 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62f8…abfebacked Aurora51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0412049.2%59 W · 61 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaaa4…865cbacked Aurora52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.156552.3%34 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d03…d567backed Aurora52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1510450%52 W · 52 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Liquid47c90$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.370236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73e6…eca0backed Aurora56c85$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.055461.1%33 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8dd4…7401backed Aurora73c81.54$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3635430.5%108 W · 246 L-27.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Aurora74c80$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.565337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Liquid31c79.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.662,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora70c74.5$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.351,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Team Liquid50c74.24$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1260552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Aurora65c73$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5527636.2%100 W · 176 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Team Liquid39c70$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.581,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.