TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Aurora, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$271,848
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$325,945

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $271,848 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Aurora55c28,650$15,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,7001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Team Liquid45c16,930$7,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,311.622644.7%101 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Aurora34c15,156$5,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,228.5751049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Team Liquid68c12,070$8,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,911.0441056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Team Liquid54c10,132$5,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,690.2840051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Aurora53c8,275$4,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,367.5271454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Liquid52c6,307$3,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,047.3496645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Liquid39c5,588$2,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,414.3696557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Aurora59c5,183$3,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0831,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Liquid55c4,960$2,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,236.7745750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Team Liquid43c4,911$2,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,795.0569644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked Aurora46c4,500$2,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,05510646.2%49 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8479…40dfbacked Aurora42c4,250$1,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,781.7810751.4%55 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Aurora38c3,573$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.9743344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Team Liquid48c3,457$1,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,784.5236547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Aurora61c3,438$2,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,096.6539660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked Team Liquid59c3,378$2,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,371.0527143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Team Liquid46c3,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.9915144.4%67 W · 84 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Aurora61c2,929$1,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,786.695342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Aurora1c2,592$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9240014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3601…44fbbacked Team Liquid51c2,329$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.4116954.4%92 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora38c2,320$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.261,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Aurora65c2,294$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50021650.9%110 W · 106 L-25.3wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x2efa…8a01backed Team Liquid38c2,145$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,329.993943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked Aurora56c2,136$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.8722842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora38c2,062$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.152,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Team Liquid45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10056542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Team Liquid62c1,864$1,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.8250769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Aurora56c1,681$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94042145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Team Liquid46c1,617$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.2944645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Team Liquid37c1,582$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.3337945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x948a…d1a4backed Aurora60c1,555$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.7624255%133 W · 109 L+14.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Team Liquid54c1,521$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.3138049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed Aurora29c1,500$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4357835.9%28 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Aurora48c1,476$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.541,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Aurora33c1,467$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.2279859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked Aurora63c1,466$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.2735960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Aurora35c1,464$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.6399844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ce0…72c1backed Aurora3c1,462$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403729.7%11 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Team Liquid71c1,327$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.7234468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora42c1,326$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.851,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Team Liquid39c1,279$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.6139343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Liquid62c1,263$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.541,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Team Liquid58c1,250$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.3953764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Liquid40c1,248$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.21,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Team Liquid42c1,130$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.9635062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Team Liquid45c1,102$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.8961745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Liquid64c1,083$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.761,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Team Liquid37c1,074$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.9757449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Aurora55c1,050$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.530336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Liquid60c1,004$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4041,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora59c1,000$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.2180443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Team Liquid41c1,000$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59041944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Liquid53c999.33$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.6960349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Liquid79c998$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.851,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb0…7ebfbacked Team Liquid78c990.21$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.53450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Aurora21c869.59$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.771,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89bd…cc95backed Aurora42c850$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.583844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked Team Liquid48c834$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.616541.2%68 W · 97 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Aurora62c830$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.777256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Aurora23c799.57$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.6168345.8%313 W · 370 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Team Liquid52c797.22$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.9877458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Aurora46c793.3$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.851,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Aurora25c763.08$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.5750832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Liquid72c755.74$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.4689938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Aurora55c749.99$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.560646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Liquid63c738.73$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.061,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Aurora52c734.85$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.3347650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2bc…a4c6backed Aurora53c712.71$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3808161.7%50 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Aurora37c603.53$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.581,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea8…0412backed Aurora56c600$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3368946.1%41 W · 48 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Aurora31c600$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18674549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b5…205abacked Team Liquid50c596.29$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.2931953.9%172 W · 147 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed Aurora51c587.2$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30029240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Team Liquid55c544.23$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.041,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed Aurora62c519.36$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32222647.3%107 W · 119 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Aurora52c505.2$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.0244149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Aurora58c500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29043738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Aurora42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21046240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Liquid46c500$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26880742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Team Liquid46c500$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27060552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Team Liquid45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2751,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Aurora34c499.99$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.551544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0d8d…9fb0backed Aurora33c499.98$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.998622.1%19 W · 67 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe110…ade6backed Team Liquid38c492.85$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.541330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Aurora59c423.15$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25096245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Team Liquid46c420.34$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.0450053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Aurora62c400$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24860251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f41…b387backed Team Liquid37c400$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2521866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+34.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Aurora41c384.15$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.543049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Aurora42c354.72$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15072035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked Aurora65c347.86$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22620452.5%107 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x443c…d83abacked Aurora63c333.97$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.625851.2%132 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Aurora43c333.03$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.8137223.1%86 W · 286 L-38.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Aurora39c300$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11663032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Aurora46c295.25$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.3956548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Aurora33c260$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.71,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7253…5fa2backed Aurora62c241.93$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505850%29 W · 29 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+19%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe74…a70ebacked Aurora52c229.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.613145.8%60 W · 71 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Aurora66c227.27$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15086451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.