Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ac5d0b5713b474ae8d952bcb9473369dd05272390c1fbb2aaf8f249f3e2a468
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Aurora, Team Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $271,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $325,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $271,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Aurora | 55c | 28,650$15,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,700 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…d739backed Team Liquid | 45c | 16,930$7,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,311.6 | 226 | 44.7%101 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed Aurora | 34c | 15,156$5,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,228.57 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed Team Liquid | 68c | 12,070$8,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,911.04 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed Team Liquid | 54c | 10,132$5,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,690.28 | 400 | 51.5%206 W · 194 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Aurora | 53c | 8,275$4,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,367.52 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Liquid | 52c | 6,307$3,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,047.34 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Team Liquid | 39c | 5,588$2,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,414.36 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Aurora | 59c | 5,183$3,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,083 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Liquid | 55c | 4,960$2,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,236.77 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed Team Liquid | 43c | 4,911$2,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,795.05 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e62…f6ffbacked Aurora | 46c | 4,500$2,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,055 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…40dfbacked Aurora | 42c | 4,250$1,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,781.78 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…cf76backed Aurora | 38c | 3,573$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.97 | 433 | 44.8%194 W · 239 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…0c5dbacked Team Liquid | 48c | 3,457$1,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.52 | 365 | 47.7%174 W · 191 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked Aurora | 61c | 3,438$2,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,096.65 | 396 | 60.1%238 W · 158 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked Team Liquid | 59c | 3,378$2,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,371.05 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Team Liquid | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619.99 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Aurora | 61c | 2,929$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,786.6 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Aurora | 1c | 2,592$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3601…44fbbacked Team Liquid | 51c | 2,329$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.41 | 169 | 54.4%92 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 38c | 2,320$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.26 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…febfbacked Aurora | 65c | 2,294$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 216 | 50.9%110 W · 106 L | -25.3wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2efa…8a01backed Team Liquid | 38c | 2,145$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.99 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…434bbacked Aurora | 56c | 2,136$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.87 | 228 | 42.1%96 W · 132 L | -25.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 38c | 2,062$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.15 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked Team Liquid | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Team Liquid | 62c | 1,864$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.82 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Aurora | 56c | 1,681$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Team Liquid | 46c | 1,617$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.29 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Team Liquid | 37c | 1,582$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.33 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…d1a4backed Aurora | 60c | 1,555$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.76 | 242 | 55%133 W · 109 L | +14.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Team Liquid | 54c | 1,521$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.31 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec5…8f77backed Aurora | 29c | 1,500$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Aurora | 48c | 1,476$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.54 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Aurora | 33c | 1,467$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.22 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked Aurora | 63c | 1,466$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.27 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Aurora | 35c | 1,464$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.63 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce0…72c1backed Aurora | 3c | 1,462$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Team Liquid | 71c | 1,327$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.72 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora | 42c | 1,326$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.85 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…b62abacked Team Liquid | 39c | 1,279$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.61 | 393 | 43.3%170 W · 223 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Liquid | 62c | 1,263$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.54 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…bbc5backed Team Liquid | 58c | 1,250$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.39 | 537 | 64.4%346 W · 191 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Liquid | 40c | 1,248$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.2 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4d12backed Team Liquid | 42c | 1,130$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.96 | 350 | 62.6%219 W · 131 L | +44.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Team Liquid | 45c | 1,102$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.89 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Team Liquid | 64c | 1,083$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.76 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Team Liquid | 37c | 1,074$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.97 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb635…bef0backed Aurora | 55c | 1,050$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.5 | 303 | 36.6%111 W · 192 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Liquid | 60c | 1,004$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora | 59c | 1,000$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.21 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…832cbacked Team Liquid | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 419 | 44.2%185 W · 234 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Team Liquid | 53c | 999.33$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.69 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Team Liquid | 79c | 998$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.85 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…7ebfbacked Team Liquid | 78c | 990.21$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Aurora | 21c | 869.59$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.77 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…cc95backed Aurora | 42c | 850$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.58 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…a7abbacked Team Liquid | 48c | 834$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.6 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Aurora | 62c | 830$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.7 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Aurora | 23c | 799.57$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.61 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Team Liquid | 52c | 797.22$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.98 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Aurora | 46c | 793.3$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.85 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Aurora | 25c | 763.08$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.57 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Liquid | 72c | 755.74$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.46 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Aurora | 55c | 749.99$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.5 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team Liquid | 63c | 738.73$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.06 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Aurora | 52c | 734.85$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.33 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bc…a4c6backed Aurora | 53c | 712.71$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Aurora | 37c | 603.53$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.58 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Aurora | 56c | 600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Aurora | 31c | 600$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b5…205abacked Team Liquid | 50c | 596.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.29 | 319 | 53.9%172 W · 147 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…54c4backed Aurora | 51c | 587.2$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 292 | 40.8%119 W · 173 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Team Liquid | 55c | 544.23$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.04 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Aurora | 62c | 519.36$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked Aurora | 52c | 505.2$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.02 | 441 | 49.4%218 W · 223 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Aurora | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Aurora | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Team Liquid | 46c | 500$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Team Liquid | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Team Liquid | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed Aurora | 34c | 499.99$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…9fb0backed Aurora | 33c | 499.98$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.99 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe110…ade6backed Team Liquid | 38c | 492.85$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Aurora | 59c | 423.15$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed Team Liquid | 46c | 420.34$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.04 | 500 | 53%265 W · 235 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Aurora | 62c | 400$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…b387backed Team Liquid | 37c | 400$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Aurora | 41c | 384.15$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Aurora | 42c | 354.72$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…111abacked Aurora | 65c | 347.86$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked Aurora | 63c | 333.97$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.6 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked Aurora | 43c | 333.03$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.81 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Aurora | 39c | 300$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Aurora | 46c | 295.25$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.39 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 33c | 260$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…5fa2backed Aurora | 62c | 241.93$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Aurora | 52c | 229.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Aurora | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group ATeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.