Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd49ea1b48e9a77b128082af0ffebf52504be66de770e81344eb942690d2a4eb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 40c | 308$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.01 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 45c | 199.61$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.86 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 159.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 28c | 158.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.72 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 138.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 138$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 74c | 134.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 130.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 129.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 34c | 120.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 14c | 118.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 115.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 66c | 105.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 55c | 105.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 29c | 89.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 78.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 67c | 74.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 37c | 69.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 68.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 67.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 62.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 41c | 61.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 39c | 61.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 60.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 26c | 59.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 39c | 55.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 50.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 66c | 49.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 35c | 49.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 71c | 48.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 43c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 44.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 32c | 44.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 43.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 37c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…f207backed No | 66c | 37.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 36.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 47c | 36.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 67c | 34.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 48c | 33.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 33.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 31.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 67c | 29.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…9009backed Yes | 38c | 28.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 67c | 27.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 67c | 25.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 55c | 24.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 61c | 20.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 20.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe462…7f94backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 68c | 19.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 79c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 61c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 71c | 17.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 16.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 65c | 15.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 35°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 36°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 39°C or higher on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.