MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4a432a6b5cebb1dafe4283775b1676b1605e0ff589d220b3cad004f6e334e91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof New York Yankees, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5be…7c6ebacked New York Yankees | 62c | 28,669$17,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,800 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed New York Yankees | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,199.99 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 19,167$7,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,089.67 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 19,147$8,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,466.86 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 8,000$3,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,080 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked New York Yankees | 49c | 5,679$2,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,783.56 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 5,222$2,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,558.71 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed New York Yankees | 51c | 3,954$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010.43 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 3,435$1,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,717.47 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 1,394$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.62 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 1,204$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.53 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed New York Yankees | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…7008backed New York Yankees | 62c | 1,100$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 1,085$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.85 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed New York Yankees | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 999.99$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.99 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked New York Yankees | 55c | 970.23$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.63 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked New York Yankees | 50c | 945.71$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.86 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked New York Yankees | 48c | 763.83$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.64 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed New York Yankees | 15c | 603.53$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.53 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 580.27$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.68 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 486.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.31 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…ce1fbacked New York Yankees | 29c | 340.55$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.76 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked New York Yankees | 63c | 300$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.5 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 284$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.84 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 231.86$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 223.64$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.1 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 214.66$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.68 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a0…2569backed New York Yankees | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 135$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed New York Yankees | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked New York Yankees | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 96.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed New York Yankees | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked New York Yankees | 41c | 88.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed New York Yankees | 53c | 64.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed New York Yankees | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c77…bde7backed New York Yankees | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked New York Yankees | 54c | 45.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…2b2dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3d…8966backed Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 36.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…009fbacked New York Yankees | 62c | 35.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed New York Yankees | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed New York Yankees | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.