Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4a4bb206de299b37cb71a9e6ca1a2328558217b8991ca7a750eb3e8235e8dcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 23c | 1,233$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.73 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…8af6backed Yes | 16c | 1,195$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.38 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 29c | 941.77$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.42 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 14c | 892.62$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.49 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 808.9$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 617.98$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.22 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 506.57$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.23 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 75c | 485.39$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.38 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 18c | 426.21$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 405$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 25c | 398.47$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 20c | 386.53$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 72c | 372.72$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.32 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 364.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 29c | 347$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 338$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…7385backed No | 66c | 294.6$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 26c | 294.42$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 278.14$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 78c | 273.52$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.43 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 246.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 24c | 240.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 26c | 239.45$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…9b27backed Yes | 16c | 232$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 79c | 226.79$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 21c | 211.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 77c | 192.76$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 187.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 20c | 184.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 174.6$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…70a4backed Yes | 18c | 162.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…9a81backed Yes | 19c | 161.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 159.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 16c | 153$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 32c | 149.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…c148backed Yes | 16c | 142.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 135.74$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 134.54$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 129.25$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5221…bd4dbacked Yes | 26c | 124.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…1e18backed Yes | 40c | 123.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7137…0c12backed Yes | 14c | 121.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 14c | 118.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…6357backed Yes | 26c | 116.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 69c | 107.1$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 24c | 105$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x158f…2bb3backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…9b21backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 93.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 16c | 90.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 85.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 65c | 83.72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1839…a2a2backed Yes | 16c | 81.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -88%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 78.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc14b…a589backed Yes | 27c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf26a…625cbacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 71cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes | 22c | 72.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d15…4a14backed Yes | 26c | 71.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 21c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x002a…8d89backed Yes | 27c | 65.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed No | 78c | 63.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 28c | 63.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 20c | 62.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…2ccbbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 26c | 61.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…271dbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 57.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 57.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 35c | 57.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 27c | 47.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 46.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 67c | 45.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 44.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 29c | 43.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…a3b9backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x593e…8cc6backed Yes | 34c | 39.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 32c | 36.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 29.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 28.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 66c | 24.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…3cc3backed No | 76c | 23.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 23.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…4dbfbacked No | 78c | 22.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.