TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,727
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,202

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,727 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4a3f…8af6backed No69c2,423$1,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.553246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes21c1,247$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.381,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes24c1,241$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.818,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes18c937.18$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.7145130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No79c783.24$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.44,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No72c633.42$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.322,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes40c599.79$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.4425135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No79c533.4$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.584,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes14c522.02$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes6c506.63$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.122,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x109c…9cc4backed Yes29c484.62$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.282227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-57.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes24c457.85$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.534533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes5c447.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.811,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No65c445.38$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.723,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes25c406.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2395933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd970…932abacked Yes16c399.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628920.2%18 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes7c385.68$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.661679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No70c383.13$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.915,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes34c356.62$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes30c354.22$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.14,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes27c342.82$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.051,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No76c332.51$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.674,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes15c299.97$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4539427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes18c266.91$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9127246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No67c256.78$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.746,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x302b…7a54backed Yes34c230$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.56624.2%16 W · 50 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No74c217.62$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.0471823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes25c209.24$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3357044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x002a…8d89backed Yes19c206.66$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed Yes22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4457150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes8c199.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.43,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca3e…4363backed Yes26c189.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x874b…4af0backed Yes20c186.37$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.069238%35 W · 57 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No61c177$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.031,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No61c156$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.61,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No68c150.68$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5442366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No67c150$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.597152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf956…9bf0backed Yes34c146.81$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c146.58$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.864,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a5…9ae8backed No77c143.13$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.43742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-36.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes14c142.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9511927.7%33 W · 86 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No61c140$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.671649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes23c134.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes17c129.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.462,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d48…3fdfbacked No77c128.94$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.661675%12 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+45.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes31c128.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.645,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes25c128.34$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.331,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes10c125.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.117234.7%25 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2a4…434fbacked Yes33c119.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.56219.5%2 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.19per pick28cpaid-79.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes36c119$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8486949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No70c107.62$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.081,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No68c107$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.344,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes16c106.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.467633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No63c101.66$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.611,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2843959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1696313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2cd…bee7backed Yes30c99.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes17c97.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee2a…729bbacked Yes22c94.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.910426%27 W · 77 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No65c94.28$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3360550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed No62c90.95$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5646232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes14c89.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.315630.8%48 W · 108 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No73c88.55$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.354,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6961…511bbacked No66c85$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.954461.4%27 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No66c84$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5654853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes35c83.64$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3514233.1%47 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No77c80$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.81,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes34c79.07$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd04…9b27backed No63c79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.232133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-47.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes25c79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.691,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No77c75.26$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.377151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No65c74.23$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7589557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No67c71$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7327079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed No61c70$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.316552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes32c69.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.49,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes20c69.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1519737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes32c68$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.842,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes17c65.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.121,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No78c64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.914,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c0…64fabacked Yes43c62.79$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1880962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9560054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes21c58.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.594,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No65c58.13$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.573,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes21c56.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.911,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No80c56$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.349675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes33c54.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.992,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No60c54.16$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.661,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No73c54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3498565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.732,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No67c49$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.063,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba88…a08ebacked Yes33c48.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.863764.9%24 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No66c45.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4547175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No80c44.65$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.142,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes29c44.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.041,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x29ef…d453backed Yes32c43.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes31c42.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.351,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No67c42.25$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.941,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb672…a1f1backed No66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.81560%9 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.