Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecdd1f3e57ac3f3253cf798a05a6c803d28b1e0cac922802ec203fb76700b4c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 1,697$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.63 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 4c | 1,265$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 42c | 1,053$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.65 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 57c | 1,053$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 1,041$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 36c | 924.18$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.24 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 763.22$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 68c | 618.06$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.78 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 597.19$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.16 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 45c | 582.67$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.56 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 68c | 552.25$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.23 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x109c…9cc4backed Yes | 76c | 545.27$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.4 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 57c | 537.33$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.25 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a5…9ae8backed No | 64c | 530$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 47c | 519.01$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.38 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes | 42c | 477.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.96 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 468.55$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.93 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 448.76$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.14 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 38c | 420.27$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.57 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 405.58$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.57 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 404.86$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.18 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 400.36$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.93 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 47c | 397.15$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.74 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 395.93$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 324.96$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 317.91$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed No | 57c | 310.87$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.2 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 44c | 304$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 300$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.82 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 31c | 292.02$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.65 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 291.92$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 50c | 272.69$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.49 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 263.2$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.45 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 45c | 244.64$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.94 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 60c | 241.45$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.87 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe53…99a6backed No | 48c | 240$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 22c | 221.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 27c | 211.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 71c | 205.17$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 201.72$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.85 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 199.83$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 194.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 60c | 193$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.8 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 9c | 180$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 57c | 161.74$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.24 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…70a4backed Yes | 42c | 160.66$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.59 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 46c | 158.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 44c | 157.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.01 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 45c | 153.27$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.66 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…8af6backed No | 64c | 148.64$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.13 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 146.59$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 42c | 139.48$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 61c | 136$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 56c | 135.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.63 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 45c | 132$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 38c | 120$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 44c | 119.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca3e…4363backed No | 40c | 116.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 52c | 115.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 44c | 114.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 16c | 106.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…3c90backed Yes | 43c | 103.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 97.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cd…bee7backed Yes | 42c | 94.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3727…85d4backed Yes | 46c | 94.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 93.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…9a81backed Yes | 45c | 87.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 56c | 86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 44c | 81.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 43c | 81.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 44c | 76.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…ace6backed Yes | 47c | 75.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 73c | 71.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 68.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 60c | 67.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 32c | 66.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 66.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x917e…516cbacked Yes | 51c | 63.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 63cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 62.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes | 51c | 56.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c33…f910backed Yes | 50c | 55.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 53c | 55.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 55.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 39c | 52.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed No | 58c | 51.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 32c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 34c | 50.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…2202backed Yes | 44c | 49.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.