TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,364
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,185

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,364 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes43c1,697$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.631,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No4c1,265$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4349543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes42c1,053$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.6525135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe241…5b42backed No57c1,053$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6008756.3%49 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes42c1,041$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes36c924.18$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.241,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No36c763.22$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.264,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes68c618.06$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.783,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No49c597.19$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.162,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No45c582.67$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.562,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes68c552.25$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.2327079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x109c…9cc4backed Yes76c545.27$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.42227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-57.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No57c537.33$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.2519737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2a5…9ae8backed No64c530$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.2742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-36.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Yes47c519.01$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.3814945.6%68 W · 81 L-9.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes42c477.96$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.962347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No61c468.55$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.932,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No24c448.76$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.144,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes38c420.27$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.5716724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes36c405.58$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.572,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No45c404.86$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.183,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No57c400.36$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.933,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes47c397.15$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.7495933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No45c395.93$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.056,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c324.96$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.355,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes37c317.91$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.498,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2549…c8b1backed No57c310.87$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.28139.5%32 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes44c304$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.244,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No42c300$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.824,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No31c292.02$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.651,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No50c291.92$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.985,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No50c272.69$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.4979947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No56c263.2$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.453,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes45c244.64$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.9427047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd881…40cdbacked No60c241.45$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.877251.4%37 W · 35 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-12.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe53…99a6backed No48c240$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1162665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No22c221.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5695852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No27c211.43$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0731649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes71c205.17$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.1125839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No61c201.72$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.854,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No48c199.83$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No14c194.76$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.381,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No60c193$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.886949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No9c180$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.23,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No57c161.74$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2442366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9210…70a4backed Yes42c160.66$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.593429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed Yes46c158.5$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.443540.5%176 W · 259 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes44c157.75$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.0111927.7%33 W · 86 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No45c153.27$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6683459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3f…8af6backed No64c148.64$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.133246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No59c146.59$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.274,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No42c139.48$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.991,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No61c136$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.631,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No56c135.77$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6354253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes45c132$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.663143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x302b…7a54backed Yes38c120$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.46624.2%16 W · 50 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No44c119.38$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.871823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca3e…4363backed No40c116.96$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes52c115.13$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4919559.5%116 W · 79 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes44c114.3$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.345238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No16c106.26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1339956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2517…3c90backed Yes43c103.88$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.024,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8357044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1239427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No57c97.52$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.221,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2cd…bee7backed Yes42c94.59$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.59425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3727…85d4backed Yes46c94.04$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.24837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes36c93.7$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.664,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa03c…9a81backed Yes45c87.67$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.223441.2%14 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7342…d5b4backed No56c86$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9615966.7%106 W · 53 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb45a…f218backed Yes44c81.64$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.53525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48c0…53d5backed Yes43c81.3$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.167847.4%37 W · 41 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x463f…f78ebacked Yes44c76.55$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.014630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf97d…ace6backed Yes47c75.22$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.221346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes73c71.37$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.272,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes60c70$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2846232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No32c68.91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No60c67.71$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7660550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes32c66.84$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.451,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes36c66.56$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.82,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x917e…516cbacked Yes51c63.19$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.891190.9%10 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.28per pick63cpaid+46.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes37c62.71$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.661,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.913,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7560054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes42c58$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.642,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes51c56.47$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.793432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c33…f910backed Yes50c55.97$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.972646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc901…0c1dbacked No53c55.09$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.24634.8%16 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No60c55.05$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.233,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes51c55$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.953,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes39c52.65$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1254735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeec8…b2c9backed No58c51.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304017.5%7 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-62.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked No32c51$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4115666%103 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No34c50.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.412,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2512927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf913…9e87backed No57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.79066.7%60 W · 30 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51b8…2202backed Yes44c49.17$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.742846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes41c48.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7865043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.