NFL · resolved market
Spread: Cardinals (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4b54d0120015866a155274bc1cdda39b0317d6a56966484fb33b171c68390ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Titansof Cardinals, Titans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Titans | 44c | 26,403$11,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,809.62 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Cardinals | 56c | 20,231$11,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,408.86 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Titans | 43c | 9,964$4,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,679.48 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Cardinals | 56c | 6,520$3,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,651.2 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Cardinals | 56c | 5,708$3,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,196.56 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…404ebacked Cardinals | 58c | 5,172$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Titans | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Cardinals | 56c | 4,536$2,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,540 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Titans | 44c | 4,500$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7000…bf9cbacked Titans | 45c | 2,244$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cardinals | 55c | 1,982$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…6088backed Cardinals | 56c | 1,873$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.96 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cardinals | 55c | 1,356$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.56 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Titans | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Cardinals | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Cardinals | 48c | 984.68$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.9 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…6eaebacked Cardinals | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Titans | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39ae…0268backed Cardinals | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Cardinals | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Cardinals | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Titans | 43c | 184.37$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.86 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Cardinals | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Titans | 42c | 122.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f78…31a4backed Cardinals | 58c | 111.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…5722backed Titans | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Cardinals | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Titans | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed Cardinals | 58c | 47.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Titans | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x646e…294dbacked Cardinals | 57c | 46.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Titans | 44c | 35.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Cardinals | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Cardinals | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cardinals (-6.5)this page
- Spread: Cardinals (-7.5)Titans won
- Titans vs. CardinalsTitans won
- Titans vs. Cardinals: O/U 41.5Over won
- Titans vs. Cardinals: O/U 42.5Over won
- Titans vs. Cardinals: O/U 52.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.