TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 236.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,588
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,370

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,588 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93ab…9723backed Over53c16,438$8,637 inWon+$7,801.660351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under47c4,110$1,938 inLost-$1,938.359,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under49c3,685$1,801 inLost-$1,801.022,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under49c1,693$830 inLost-$829.571,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Under46c1,650$759 inLost-$75922143%95 W · 126 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked Under49c1,397$685 inLost-$684.5720355.2%112 W · 91 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under49c1,259$617 inLost-$616.912,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under46c1,193$549 inLost-$5492,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over51c909.05$465 inWon+$443.854,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Under46c591.5$272 inLost-$272.0940146.9%188 W · 213 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over52c482.74$249 inWon+$233.776,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Over54c328.76$176 inWon+$152.7441947.7%200 W · 219 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over52c200.57$105 inWon+$95.863,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Under45c200$90 inLost-$9091148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over50c164.38$82 inWon+$82.1953951.6%278 W · 261 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Over53c82.19$43 inWon+$38.8126756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Under46c71.87$33 inLost-$33.0614533.1%48 W · 97 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf0…b95dbacked Over52c67.31$35 inWon+$32.3110955%60 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Over55c49$27 inWon+$22.051,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…6324backed Under46c43.48$20 inLost-$202839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+38.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over50c42.87$21 inWon+$21.443,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9c39…20eebacked Under50c38.43$19 inLost-$19.2235843.6%156 W · 202 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75fd…9a86backed Under46c33$15 inLost-$15.1816036.3%58 W · 102 L-15.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x48df…e4c9backed Under50c30$15 inLost-$1521553.5%115 W · 100 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.