NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc594023515f9df0f56a5080a74455cb5fe903976977909a97ecb2197da6810f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over | 50c | 12,013$6,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,006.61 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…67e1backed Under | 52c | 11,445$5,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,936.81 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 7,711$3,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,015.69 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Under | 50c | 5,523$2,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,761.41 | 296 | 50.3%149 W · 147 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 52c | 4,717$2,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,452.83 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad40…a697backed Under | 55c | 3,665$2,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,016.01 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 3,477$1,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,748.73 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff1…49cebacked Under | 50c | 1,642$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed Over | 48c | 1,458$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.33 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 1,241$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.04 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 51c | 1,228$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.03 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 46c | 1,044$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.92 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 348 | 55.2%192 W · 156 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Under | 53c | 809.81$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.2 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 25c | 808$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Over | 44c | 700$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Under | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 540.75$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.19 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 50c | 424.88$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.44 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f43…c0c2backed Under | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 61c | 155.78$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 49c | 153.82$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.18 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 48c | 118.77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 51c | 108.02$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 44c | 99.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 46c | 94.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 53c | 69.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…2e45backed Under | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 56c | 66.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 292 | 43.8%128 W · 164 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 63.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b7…5324backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 41c | 56.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d8…480bbacked Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Over | 49c | 49.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 151 | 56.3%85 W · 66 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 48c | 49.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 48c | 48.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 48c | 45.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 35c | 45.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc03a…a7bdbacked Under | 51c | 33.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Over | 55c | 32.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b0…df5abacked Over | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 69c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Under | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffbc…b889backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 82 | 64.6%53 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 54c | 22.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd10b…2f6dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ed…4443backed Under | 56c | 19.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 238.5this page
- GG Jackson II: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Grizzlies vs. HeatHeat won
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Santi Aldama: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-11.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-12.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Heat won
- Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ty Jerome: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.