TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-11.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$278,049
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$279,363

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $278,049 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93ab…9723backed Heat52c148,258$77,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,996.5160351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Grizzlies48c98,431$47,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,062.6543148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Grizzlies48c70,485$34,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,085.421,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Heat52c42,099$21,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,146.021,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Grizzlies48c40,934$19,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,648.1629650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Heat51c28,800$14,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,023.981,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies48c12,294$5,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,858.819,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Heat53c10,476$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,975.71,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Grizzlies48c6,129$2,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,946.044,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Heat52c4,808$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,307.691,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Grizzlies48c4,783$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,278.843,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies48c4,754$2,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,276.656,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Heat51c3,403$1,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,667.3824252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Heat52c2,885$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,384.6256453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc466…263ebacked Grizzlies50c2,298$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.781346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick62cpaid-32.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Heat50c2,265$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.814,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat56c2,234$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.98,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Heat53c1,864$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.4941947.7%200 W · 219 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Grizzlies3c1,746$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3829810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Grizzlies50c1,004$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50067252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Grizzlies49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49095641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Grizzlies48c998$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.5351354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79b0…ea3bbacked Heat53c950$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.515154.3%82 W · 69 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Grizzlies47c932.57$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.3159347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Grizzlies41c811.82$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.633,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Heat52c741.23$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.7926756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Grizzlies48c630$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.430452.6%160 W · 144 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Grizzlies48c600$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28849345.2%223 W · 270 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b49…1f54backed Heat52c600$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2861353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Heat52c499.98$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.9923644.1%104 W · 132 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Grizzlies43c479.2$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.223,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a6…afa6backed Grizzlies47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011142.3%47 W · 64 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86d9…b214backed Grizzlies49c410.52$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20021854.6%119 W · 99 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked Grizzlies49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20027052.6%142 W · 128 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0d…2044backed Heat54c371.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.443548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b4…97debacked Grizzlies41c345.2$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec55…6870backed Grizzlies49c326.44$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.944443.2%19 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5b…a569backed Grizzlies50c317.65$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16023847.1%112 W · 126 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Heat60c316.1$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.7183039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Grizzlies49c306.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15052242.7%223 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2d3…9af1backed Heat52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14412642.1%53 W · 73 L-11.6wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-23.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8126…9d18backed Grizzlies49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1474953.1%26 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x672a…abb7backed Heat52c294.12$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.181442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x588b…fb2dbacked Heat55c282.44$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.47955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Grizzlies48c275.72$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.3540546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Grizzlies49c254.65$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.791,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…dc1abacked Grizzlies49c251.02$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1231921.1%4 W · 15 L-5.7wins-0.30per pick51cpaid-65.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Grizzlies48c247$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.782,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Grizzlies49c244.89$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204746.8%22 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Grizzlies48c209.79$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.73,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Heat50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10091148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa373…b6dcbacked Grizzlies55c182.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017845.5%81 W · 97 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Grizzlies48c166.67$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8087453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0339…1394backed Grizzlies48c150$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7213045.4%59 W · 71 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe86…6763backed Grizzlies31c143.9$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410243.1%44 W · 58 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…fcc3backed Grizzlies50c140$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7021743.8%95 W · 122 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcf0…b95dbacked Heat52c133.35$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.3510955%60 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb314…aacbbacked Heat53c124$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.561656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Heat49c119.61$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4512…5d41backed Grizzlies49c113.16$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5521637.5%81 W · 135 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Grizzlies27c112.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.913,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5558…f9c4backed Heat50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5037549.6%186 W · 189 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…3961backed Heat45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5513738.7%53 W · 84 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Grizzlies48c94.25$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.453,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Heat48c86$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7266646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Heat59c73.83$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5445452%236 W · 218 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Grizzlies36c72.39$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.061,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Grizzlies50c70.27$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.193,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cc5…ee5abacked Grizzlies50c67.38$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3412542.4%53 W · 72 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e4a…7045backed Heat52c64.32$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8722748.9%111 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Grizzlies48c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.854246.7%253 W · 289 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Grizzlies45c56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.161,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Grizzlies47c53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.912,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3de…fe0ebacked Heat52c51.63$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.787145.1%32 W · 39 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed95…889cbacked Grizzlies48c50.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9419750.3%99 W · 98 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed Heat52c46.92$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5214050.7%71 W · 69 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Grizzlies32c45.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.676621.2%14 W · 52 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc95f…357fbacked Grizzlies48c41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6816852.4%88 W · 80 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3c2…6d84backed Grizzlies49c40.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.781650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Heat45c38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.95,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec66…e58fbacked Grizzlies48c33.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1624250.8%123 W · 119 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Heat58c32.1$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3788057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa02e…9442backed Heat63c31.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.63728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9698…de01backed Grizzlies32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1026757.3%153 W · 114 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48df…e4c9backed Heat52c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.421553.5%115 W · 100 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddf3…3c57backed Heat51c29.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.71338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Heat52c26.04$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.514448.6%70 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Heat48c24.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.71,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Grizzlies50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1053839.4%212 W · 326 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Heat56c18.05$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9715663.5%99 W · 57 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x94b3…3d7fbacked Heat72c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick75cpaid+34.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.