NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19a74a79bcf54b007e405f87041f6fabdc05fc53320670dcb69ddd57fbc23b3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Grizzlies | 40c | 1,304$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.19 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 58c | 1,023$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Heat | 59c | 721.27$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.72 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Heat | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.73 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Heat | 59c | 396.61$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.61 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Grizzlies | 43c | 319.81$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.95 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Heat | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Heat | 61c | 207$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Heat | 62c | 159.94$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Grizzlies | 39c | 143.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Heat | 59c | 118.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Heat | 62c | 109.68$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies | 49c | 97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Heat | 61c | 96.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Grizzlies | 38c | 87.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Grizzlies | 40c | 73.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Heat | 60c | 73.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Grizzlies | 39c | 69.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Grizzlies | 43c | 57.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Heat | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Heat | 70c | 49.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffdf…3323backed Grizzlies | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…4b15backed Heat | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Grizzlies | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Grizzlies | 40c | 43.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Grizzlies | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Grizzlies | 41c | 29.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Grizzlies | 38c | 28.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f32…3e18backed Heat | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Heat | 60c | 27.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Heat | 60c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Heat | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Heat | 64c | 17.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)this page
- GG Jackson II: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Grizzlies vs. HeatHeat won
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Over won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Santi Aldama: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-11.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-12.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Heat won
- Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ty Jerome: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.