NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cae0e9deda6184ce3d288aef3ea9463ea6737ffd03fab2371e9be3841240566
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $170,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $172,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Over | 50c | 74,186$37,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,093.09 | 603 | 51.4%310 W · 293 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…0924backed Under | 50c | 18,500$9,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,250 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 14,258$7,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,110.11 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 47c | 10,304$4,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,501.35 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…0840backed Over | 52c | 9,615$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,615.38 | 266 | 48.5%129 W · 137 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 50c | 8,943$4,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,487.24 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9931…ea8cbacked Under | 48c | 7,363$3,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,534.24 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Under | 54c | 6,907$3,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,730 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Under | 49c | 5,959$2,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,945.54 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Under | 53c | 5,630$2,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,983.85 | 518 | 44.4%230 W · 288 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…cec3backed Over | 46c | 5,004$2,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,716.51 | 154 | 50.6%78 W · 76 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 49c | 5,001$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450.49 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 4,519$2,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,259.39 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8590…07adbacked Under | 48c | 3,300$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.51 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Under | 50c | 2,816$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Under | 53c | 2,800$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484 | 220 | 55%121 W · 99 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under | 48c | 2,577$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 1,898$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.29 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 1,699$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.28 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabde…d41fbacked Over | 51c | 1,327$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.44 | 419 | 47.7%200 W · 219 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4935…fc12backed Under | 48c | 998.23$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.15 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 947.9$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.96 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 50c | 900$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.55 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 50c | 900$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Under | 55c | 700$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 50c | 694$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 51c | 568.97$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.68 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 49c | 511.68$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.58 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 51c | 478.34$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.39 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Under | 54c | 308$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.32 | 544 | 43%234 W · 310 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Over | 54c | 286.57$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.98 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 51c | 272.42$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.24 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9665…424cbacked Over | 48c | 270.15$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.48 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.37per pick | 49cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 10c | 223$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 44c | 212.09$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.86 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51c2…2b13backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e31…5e8ebacked Under | 49c | 177.65$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.05 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 50c | 164.49$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…1848backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672a…abb7backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 48c | 99.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…fc16backed Under | 53c | 81.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Under | 50c | 77.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Over | 50c | 77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 50c | 73.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf71…9f1cbacked Over | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…b95dbacked Over | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 47c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 47c | 59.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 55c | 54.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 25c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 52c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…3acebacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…2e45backed Under | 48c | 41.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ac93backed Over | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 49c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Under | 54c | 33.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Under | 53c | 30.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…cc32backed Under | 52c | 27.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Over | 49c | 25.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under | 51c | 22.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Under | 51c | 19.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 237.5this page
- GG Jackson II: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Grizzlies vs. HeatHeat won
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Over won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Santi Aldama: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-11.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-12.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Heat won
- Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ty Jerome: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.