TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$200,883
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$200,939

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,883 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Grizzlies45c105,328$47,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,397.7487144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Heat55c66,323$36,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,858.3829650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat53c24,904$13,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,709.719,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Grizzlies46c19,231$8,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,846.141,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Heat55c17,818$9,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,018.1811457.9%66 W · 48 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Heat52c15,732$8,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,488.091,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7af9…b408backed Heat55c15,048$8,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,771.756657.6%38 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Grizzlies45c15,000$6,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,75037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Grizzlies45c8,982$4,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,04220948.8%102 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf438…9559backed Heat54c8,333$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,833.331855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Grizzlies50c6,666$3,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,33345850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Heat55c4,892$2,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,201.448352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat54c3,885$2,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,768.426,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Grizzlies51c3,721$1,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,880.5169149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Grizzlies46c3,360$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.665750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Heat55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.9948957.5%281 W · 208 L+2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Grizzlies49c1,938$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.814,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Grizzlies46c1,739$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80040041.5%166 W · 234 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Grizzlies46c1,619$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.121,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Heat51c1,517$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.5738253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Heat53c1,347$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.344,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x899a…2a22backed Grizzlies45c1,104$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50017241.9%72 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Grizzlies47c1,003$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.082,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Grizzlies50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50026149.4%129 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Grizzlies50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50029149.5%144 W · 147 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Heat53c960.93$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.083,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat55c935.21$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.238,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Grizzlies45c793.33$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35717953.1%95 W · 84 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Heat51c733.77$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.473,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Heat55c727.27$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.2727746.6%129 W · 148 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Grizzlies46c700$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3229842.9%42 W · 56 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x05e1…85a2backed Grizzlies46c652.17$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30032347.1%152 W · 171 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Grizzlies47c470.07$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.723,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Heat55c412.08$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.4476552.9%405 W · 360 L-2.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Heat54c401.16$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.713,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4113…e904backed Heat50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2005048%24 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Grizzlies54c400$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2162,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b46…121dbacked Heat50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20031551.7%163 W · 152 L-1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b73…45d9backed Grizzlies46c360.89$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.0134342.9%147 W · 196 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Heat55c301$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.3751354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd60f…b6c4backed Heat54c290$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.44151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9325…adafbacked Grizzlies52c286.64$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15011754.7%64 W · 53 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Grizzlies46c279$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.3454443%234 W · 310 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Heat55c272.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.7359140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Grizzlies46c250$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11585147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Heat52c248.96$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.862,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Grizzlies51c225.49$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11582440.4%333 W · 491 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Heat55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9059144.5%263 W · 328 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7509…d031backed Grizzlies48c200$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9520847.1%98 W · 110 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Heat54c199.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.9995548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Grizzlies46c197.83$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9155846.8%261 W · 297 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x65d8…bac6backed Grizzlies46c185$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.138350.4%193 W · 190 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x300b…e032backed Heat55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8219045.8%87 W · 103 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03fa…02bbbacked Grizzlies47c170.21$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807838.5%30 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Heat54c166.56$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.781,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3eb…d78bbacked Grizzlies46c164.37$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.611050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed Grizzlies46c161.7$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7538050.8%193 W · 187 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Heat52c128.09$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.943,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Grizzlies43c126$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.623,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Heat52c119.76$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6288057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65b6…2108backed Grizzlies39c116.62$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4535844.1%158 W · 200 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Heat56c116$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0452240%209 W · 313 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b2…1950backed Heat55c112.73$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.738357.8%48 W · 35 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e02…1da8backed Heat55c112.71$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.721546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fad…374cbacked Grizzlies46c111.17$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1418644.1%82 W · 104 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a97…c1f9backed Heat49c110.41$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3117960.9%109 W · 70 L+17.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Grizzlies45c109.8$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4162541.9%262 W · 363 L-32.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Heat55c106$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.723946.4%111 W · 128 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96d3…7c24backed Grizzlies51c103$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x553d…f6c4backed Heat50c103$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf16…65a6backed Heat49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0425753.7%138 W · 119 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Heat55c101.84$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9366646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e69…200ebacked Grizzlies46c101.76$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8128140.6%114 W · 167 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed Heat50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508651.2%44 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x434e…a62ebacked Heat55c97.84$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0321748.4%105 W · 112 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0aa0…be2dbacked Grizzlies46c97.83$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459445.7%43 W · 51 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3cc…c029backed Grizzlies46c89.84$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5216250%81 W · 81 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae9a…7ceabacked Grizzlies50c88.13$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.497847.4%37 W · 41 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9094…dcabbacked Grizzlies51c78.3$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0823655.5%131 W · 105 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5611…e5f4backed Heat49c77.53$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.542055%11 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c08…af98backed Heat50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3532654.3%177 W · 149 L-1.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eb7…d529backed Heat50c59.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3729351.9%152 W · 141 L+1.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf280…b65bbacked Heat54c54.59$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8930743%132 W · 175 L-19.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcf0…b95dbacked Heat55c54.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5510955%60 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa30…c7abbacked Grizzlies46c54.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511448.2%55 W · 59 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Heat54c54.35$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Heat50c54.07$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.91,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Heat56c53.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5751651.2%264 W · 252 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Heat61c53.57$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.93,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed Grizzlies46c53.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4734641%142 W · 204 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Grizzlies46c52$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9253945.3%244 W · 295 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies48c51.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.774,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc6f…5d6fbacked Grizzlies46c50.87$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.423144.2%102 W · 129 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Grizzlies46c50.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.981,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Heat54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2368645.5%312 W · 374 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x819a…4b03backed Heat54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2314151.8%73 W · 68 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Heat55c49$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.051,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59d0…a871backed Heat55c45.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.457550.7%38 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Grizzlies45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2043647.9%209 W · 227 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0dd…cea3backed Grizzlies46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203339.4%13 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.