NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6be5a2077ce7ae27a991f27a09a2a9d3ccf04446262e43c85728eb5c8afc317
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies | 49c | 3,342$1,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,637.22 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Heat | 54c | 3,236$1,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480.67 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 53c | 2,962$1,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378.79 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Heat | 58c | 2,769$1,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.88 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Grizzlies | 47c | 2,657$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.01 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Grizzlies | 42c | 1,749$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.43 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Grizzlies | 47c | 1,533$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Heat | 54c | 1,200$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.99 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…9d48backed Heat | 55c | 1,098$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.18 | 193 | 59.6%115 W · 78 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 966.87$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.99 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Grizzlies | 41c | 444$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.01 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Heat | 60c | 378.31$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.32 | 765 | 52.9%405 W · 360 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Heat | 55c | 268$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.6 | 544 | 43%234 W · 310 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Heat | 53c | 213.21$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.21 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Heat | 58c | 192.24$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.92 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Grizzlies | 40c | 153$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Grizzlies | 46c | 128.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Grizzlies | 45c | 116.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Grizzlies | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Grizzlies | 48c | 88.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Grizzlies | 41c | 88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Grizzlies | 44c | 82.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 45c | 81.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Heat | 53c | 67.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Grizzlies | 42c | 59.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Grizzlies | 43c | 52.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7169…3f14backed Heat | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Heat | 59c | 48.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Grizzlies | 46c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat | 53c | 43.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Heat | 58c | 42.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Grizzlies | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Grizzlies | 42c | 40.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…fe8bbacked Heat | 55c | 36.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a0…da0dbacked Heat | 58c | 34.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Grizzlies | 46c | 34.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Heat | 55c | 33.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Heat | 57c | 29.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Grizzlies | 42c | 28.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…416abacked Heat | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Grizzlies | 45c | 25.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Heat | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)this page
- GG Jackson II: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Grizzlies vs. HeatHeat won
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Over won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Santi Aldama: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-11.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-12.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
- Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ty Jerome: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.