Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5689240202189dc93f14bd14383f127ad8714b6ac1b34c7af064cf40d6667ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 24c | 413.75$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 33c | 334.84$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.5 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 333$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 209.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.57 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1704…b0e1backed Yes | 75c | 156.5$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 65c | 156.47$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 41c | 147.03$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.37 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 18c | 144.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 75c | 139.54$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.49 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 21c | 115.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 112.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 45c | 103.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 101.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 43c | 100.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 95.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e5…d1f0backed Yes | 26c | 90.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked No | 70c | 90.26$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 22c | 85.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed No | 60c | 83.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…bcf5backed Yes | 74c | 83.35$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 29c | 81.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 71c | 73.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 68c | 72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked Yes | 17c | 70.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 50c | 69.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 49c | 68.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf089…c8febacked Yes | 26c | 65.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +286.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 67c | 62.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 74c | 60.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 58.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 30c | 58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 23c | 52.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 29c | 51.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 32c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 20c | 49.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611c…9ae1backed Yes | 28c | 49.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +256.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 32c | 45.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 30c | 43.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 31c | 39.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 77c | 38.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 42c | 38.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 32c | 38.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 36.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 40c | 35.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 31.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 68c | 31.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 71c | 28.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 27.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 27.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 26.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f8…4a32backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Yes | 68c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…af71backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 21.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 58c | 20.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…6b35backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 77c | 19.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 18.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 18.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 75c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 17.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 68c | 17.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 73c | 15.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.