Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe742673d4c7ce940d0c481f83019e99f09f08c4c0dce04aa4854441ff8e5819e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked Yes | 2c | 683.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 45c | 635.54$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.1 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 7c | 576.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 53c | 322.92$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.87 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 34c | 299.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 32c | 204.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 203.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 44c | 202.06$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 199.48$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 79c | 184.13$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 67c | 181.28$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 136.96$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 136.24$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 135.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 52c | 127$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.61 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 125.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 48c | 124$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 106.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 58c | 85.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 50c | 83.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Yes | 18c | 83.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…fb4dbacked Yes | 36c | 83.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 47c | 82.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 30c | 79.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 24c | 79.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 50c | 75.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 66c | 71.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 70.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 34c | 68.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 37c | 68.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…f7edbacked No | 47c | 68.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 67.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 51c | 60.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 59.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 68c | 58.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 69c | 57.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 49c | 56.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 24c | 54.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 53.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 33c | 51.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b6…4ad7backed No | 55c | 51.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes | 33c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…aef4backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 49.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 48c | 49.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 49c | 46.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 69c | 43.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…7265backed No | 69c | 38.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 36c | 37.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 35.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 34.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 33c | 31.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c5…f991backed No | 69c | 30.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 30.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 63c | 29.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 71c | 29.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6631…2fc8backed No | 75c | 27.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 73c | 27.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 25.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 56c | 22.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…c3b3backed Yes | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f8…4a32backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 62c | 19.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…af71backed No | 74c | 18.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 18.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 79c | 14.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.