TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Mauthausen: Martin Krumich vs Jaime Faria

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jaime Fariaof Martin Krumich, Jaime Faria
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$111,912
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$134,372

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,912 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde9f…d43cbacked Martin Krumich52c6,094$3,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,151.136,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27b0…fc67backed Jaime Faria46c5,100$2,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,75431234.6%108 W · 204 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Martin Krumich58c3,985$2,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,303.2711,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7402…8020backed Jaime Faria31c2,802$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,927.967526.7%20 W · 55 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Jaime Faria57c2,632$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.5862061.9%384 W · 236 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0165…8235backed Jaime Faria63c2,431$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893.195749.1%28 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb16…96b5backed Jaime Faria48c2,292$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.6744448.9%217 W · 227 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7cb…4088backed Jaime Faria63c1,930$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.5118159.7%108 W · 73 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Martin Krumich53c1,868$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9901,42848.2%689 W · 739 L+4.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa724…7bdabacked Martin Krumich59c1,580$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.8129754.5%162 W · 135 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58f…ee1abacked Martin Krumich60c1,541$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9196454.7%35 W · 29 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-0.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Martin Krumich59c1,416$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.94,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Martin Krumich55c1,213$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.35,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Martin Krumich46c1,168$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.2154345.3%246 W · 297 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec8…762abacked Martin Krumich37c1,036$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.086139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Martin Krumich51c1,023$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.887,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x695d…60d5backed Jaime Faria46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5407444.6%33 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e59…1520backed Jaime Faria59c983.05$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.0530744.6%137 W · 170 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde80…d8b9backed Jaime Faria30c976.87$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.817630.3%23 W · 53 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Jaime Faria63c901$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.3787251.1%446 W · 426 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc181…0992backed Jaime Faria63c852.18$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.8965651.8%340 W · 316 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc128…2217backed Martin Krumich37c810.81$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010655.7%59 W · 47 L+13.2wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+28.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Martin Krumich37c810.81$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,86544.7%834 W · 1,031 L+36.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x058e…a2acbacked Jaime Faria58c792.98$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.9832851.8%170 W · 158 L+1.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8668…7f8fbacked Jaime Faria32c758.59$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.847560%45 W · 30 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+30.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc26a…b715backed Jaime Faria31c733.87$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.3757321.8%125 W · 448 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2843…0ac5backed Martin Krumich65c732.57$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.0723159.3%137 W · 94 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Martin Krumich55c727.97$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.758,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Martin Krumich62c705$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.230857.1%176 W · 132 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Martin Krumich36c654.17$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.54,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Martin Krumich37c653.05$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.724634.1%84 W · 162 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Martin Krumich70c610.9$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4264,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Jaime Faria63c594.72$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.0597745.2%442 W · 535 L-0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Martin Krumich37c569.48$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.711,86545.6%851 W · 1,014 L+50.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Jaime Faria46c542$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.1552341.5%217 W · 306 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Jaime Faria35c515.28$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.5765346.4%303 W · 350 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcef5…efc4backed Martin Krumich60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked Jaime Faria42c479.17$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.1758931.1%183 W · 406 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Jaime Faria63c476.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.1943449.1%213 W · 221 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Jaime Faria63c476.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.192,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Martin Krumich37c473$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.017,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Jaime Faria63c422$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.141,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Martin Krumich55c400$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22060943.3%264 W · 345 L-24.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Jaime Faria49c388.34$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.379,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1b6…70ffbacked Martin Krumich66c378.86$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020352.2%106 W · 97 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc3…9d67backed Jaime Faria35c347.49$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.8739431%122 W · 272 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Martin Krumich55c343.31$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.122,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Jaime Faria41c328.21$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.2187337.1%324 W · 549 L-3.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a81…7debbacked Jaime Faria63c317.46$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4614564.1%93 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb82e…0c3bbacked Martin Krumich78c308.58$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401973.7%14 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed Martin Krumich20c307.63$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8617617%30 W · 146 L-15.9wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-45.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Martin Krumich40c304.9$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.471,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Martin Krumich41c295.96$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.192,22945%1,002 W · 1,227 L+3.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Jaime Faria60c275.88$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.711,15844.4%514 W · 644 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Martin Krumich37c275$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7534549.9%172 W · 173 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Martin Krumich64c272.76$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.624,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf677…0e56backed Martin Krumich54c270.91$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2328350.5%143 W · 140 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ad9…4859backed Jaime Faria54c265.78$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.12540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48ee…0db4backed Jaime Faria49c265.31$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.3154547.9%261 W · 284 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dbb…c0fdbacked Jaime Faria57c250.88$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.889856.1%55 W · 43 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked Jaime Faria63c245$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.6515040%60 W · 90 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked Jaime Faria64c235.74$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.7440264.4%259 W · 143 L+12.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x415c…d51ebacked Jaime Faria30c230$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16114325.9%37 W · 106 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d87…abeabacked Jaime Faria42c226.33$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.339546.3%44 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Martin Krumich51c221.27$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6927247.4%129 W · 143 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x214a…408abacked Martin Krumich59c220.34$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302536%9 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3ac…5018backed Jaime Faria46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3920844.2%92 W · 116 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafb2…0942backed Jaime Faria45c213.33$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.333953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Martin Krumich43c208.76$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.553,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Martin Krumich53c207.94$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.16,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked Jaime Faria34c200.77$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.7722550.2%113 W · 112 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a6a…ed83backed Martin Krumich72c200.13$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.113432.8%44 W · 90 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xebe2…e4d2backed Martin Krumich56c199.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1124729.8%14 W · 33 L-9.7wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-44.4%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Jaime Faria42c199.99$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11645445.4%206 W · 248 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Martin Krumich61c195.58$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6528348.4%137 W · 146 L+1.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x610b…36a3backed Martin Krumich54c186.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10054744.4%243 W · 304 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d7…0df5backed Jaime Faria51c181.45$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.454551.1%23 W · 22 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+26.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Martin Krumich52c166.46$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.794,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Martin Krumich17c149.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.569438%264 W · 430 L+21.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Martin Krumich67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe612…ee20backed Jaime Faria47c148.94$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.949560%57 W · 38 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Jaime Faria43c146.8$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.051,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a0e…5e62backed Jaime Faria35c142.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.865957.6%34 W · 25 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0e8…96fbbacked Martin Krumich71c140.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0293…f15bbacked Martin Krumich73c136.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002755.6%15 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick67cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb20…bea0backed Jaime Faria46c130.42$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4214132.6%46 W · 95 L-12.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Martin Krumich58c127.65$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0495846.6%446 W · 512 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda74…1ab0backed Jaime Faria54c125.38$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7294549.6%469 W · 476 L-23.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bfa…a8debacked Jaime Faria42c124.05$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.835951.3%184 W · 175 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Martin Krumich37c120$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.47,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…50febacked Jaime Faria35c114.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.8635436.4%129 W · 225 L-16.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a85…e543backed Martin Krumich36c106.51$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1321455.1%118 W · 96 L+10.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Martin Krumich37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Martin Krumich38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3824547.8%117 W · 128 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed Martin Krumich17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1739941.9%167 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f01…0d90backed Jaime Faria62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3814443.1%62 W · 82 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Jaime Faria31c99.89$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.9321949.3%108 W · 111 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7708…42cbbacked Martin Krumich55c96.29$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.556628.8%19 W · 47 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Martin Krumich36c94.87$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.151,24551.9%646 W · 599 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Jaime Faria38c92.05$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.262,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.