NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 246.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5afb705013859d9d3c2ad4074720aa2601f2a4aba13f76bc7f7d9838920e6a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Under | 52c | 3,800$1,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,976 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Over | 47c | 2,560$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356.98 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 56c | 2,032$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.14 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Over | 52c | 1,496$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.84 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 1,345$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.42 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 44c | 1,153$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.3 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Under | 44c | 1,085$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.31 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 38c | 266.03$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 197.64$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.56 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 116$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Over | 52c | 111$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 46c | 95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 46c | 83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 55c | 77.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…0c2abacked Under | 47c | 61.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 55.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Over | 54c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Over | 54c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d8…480bbacked Under | 44c | 43.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Under | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed Over | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 53c | 22.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 246 | 45.9%113 W · 133 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 246.5this page
- Pelicans vs. BullsBulls won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 127.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 245.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 247.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 248.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 249.5Over won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.