NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bulls (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd71cc74942ae4a4915e713efc003da2f1f69e1eb2caa83a2fbf290eb4675a748
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Bulls, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2165…f598backed Pelicans | 54c | 10,000$5,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,374 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bulls | 47c | 2,753$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.77 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 52c | 930.75$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Pelicans | 52c | 863.46$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Pelicans | 53c | 726.71$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.65 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Pelicans | 52c | 507.4$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.85 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pelicans | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bulls | 47c | 468.08$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.08 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Bulls | 49c | 326.53$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.53 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Pelicans | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Bulls | 47c | 255.32$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.32 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Pelicans | 52c | 208.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…0188backed Pelicans | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 59c | 184.69$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 46c | 170$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Bulls | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…2ee5backed Bulls | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked Pelicans | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb05f…7434backed Pelicans | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Pelicans | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed Pelicans | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Bulls | 47c | 63.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Pelicans | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 191 | 49.7%95 W · 96 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bulls | 47c | 58.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Bulls | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Bulls | 47c | 43.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Pelicans | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bulls | 47c | 34.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Pelicans | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6931…89cabacked Pelicans | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bulls | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)this page
- Pelicans vs. BullsBulls won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 127.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 245.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 246.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 247.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 248.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 249.5Over won
- Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.