TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pelicans vs. Bulls: O/U 249.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,975
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,721

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,975 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xead0…f3babacked Under49c3,924$1,923 inLost-$1,922.561,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Over51c3,922$2,000 inWon+$1,921.5716633.7%56 W · 110 L-11.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over47c2,646$1,245 inWon+$1,401.472,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Under54c1,500$809 inLost-$809.3673649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Under53c1,132$600 inLost-$60015244.1%67 W · 85 L-14.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-18.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Over53c1,114$588 inWon+$526.4650347.9%241 W · 262 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9925…e33ebacked Under53c1,091$578 inLost-$578.1510156.4%57 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under47c1,088$511 inLost-$510.873,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95d0…04d6backed Under53c943.4$500 inLost-$5001471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under46c898$410 inLost-$410.128,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7422…e383backed Over57c612.63$350 inWon+$262.635653.6%30 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Under50c600$300 inLost-$3001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over50c600$300 inWon+$3002,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over49c556.91$273 inWon+$283.559,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958f…7d5abacked Under51c491.45$251 inLost-$250.6413464.2%86 W · 48 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under46c70.31$32 inLost-$32.133,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over47c63.85$30 inWon+$33.8593849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11b3…48b6backed Under50c60$30 inLost-$301145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e24…b31fbacked Under50c50$25 inLost-$2514357.3%82 W · 61 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under47c48.59$23 inLost-$22.834,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77de…6e99backed Under53c47.17$25 inLost-$251330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over50c44.61$22 inWon+$22.461,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb545…6e0abacked Under50c40$20 inLost-$2017527.4%48 W · 127 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under49c39.22$19 inLost-$19.222,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Under50c20$10 inLost-$103976.9%30 W · 9 L+6.9wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+30.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.