Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Elena Rybakina vs Emma Raducanu
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd600295f97e73f6c28710d80da0ded26b77e3ec44185e4547581c35a3d652210
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rybakinaof Rybakina, Raducanu
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Raducanu | 21c | 8,261$1,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,711.48 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Raducanu | 18c | 6,927$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.49 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Raducanu | 38c | 4,958$1,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,884.14 | 761 | 46.6%355 W · 406 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Rybakina | 78c | 3,997$3,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.49 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Raducanu | 2c | 3,823$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.55 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Rybakina | 61c | 3,750$2,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Raducanu | 40c | 3,400$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.65 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…e617backed Rybakina | 61c | 3,354$2,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.96 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Raducanu | 37c | 2,600$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Rybakina | 62c | 2,590$1,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.22 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…69e7backed Raducanu | 39c | 2,570$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.3 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -40%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Raducanu | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Raducanu | 14c | 2,369$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.14 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Raducanu | 18c | 2,217$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.12 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Raducanu | 6c | 1,745$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.32 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Rybakina | 60c | 1,700$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Raducanu | 38c | 1,600$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608 | 724 | 52.6%381 W · 343 L | +34.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…759dbacked Rybakina | 62c | 1,517$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.03 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Raducanu | 16c | 1,350$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Raducanu | 29c | 1,253$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.29 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Rybakina | 62c | 1,245$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.06 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Raducanu | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Raducanu | 22c | 942.41$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Raducanu | 14c | 939.62$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.8 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1484…cafebacked Raducanu | 12c | 845.87$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2d…58b9backed Rybakina | 64c | 821.88$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Rybakina | 63c | 737.02$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.7 | 129 | 49.6%64 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Raducanu | 20c | 720$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e5…4b4dbacked Raducanu | 39c | 662.97$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Raducanu | 37c | 621.94$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.12 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Raducanu | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Raducanu | 18c | 599.52$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.87 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed Rybakina | 74c | 561.4$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.08 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Raducanu | 37c | 459.06$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.85 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…e43dbacked Raducanu | 36c | 443.27$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Rybakina | 62c | 400$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.63 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Raducanu | 25c | 399.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Raducanu | 10c | 355$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Raducanu | 11c | 340.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…315dbacked Raducanu | 15c | 335.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Rybakina | 61c | 331.99$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.48 | 872 | 51.1%446 W · 426 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdc…7cddbacked Rybakina | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…120dbacked Rybakina | 62c | 314$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.32 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed Rybakina | 65c | 290$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Raducanu | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed Raducanu | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Raducanu | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Raducanu | 29c | 200.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Raducanu | 35c | 187.22$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Rybakina | 62c | 166.13$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Rybakina | 62c | 161.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Rybakina | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Rybakina | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Rybakina | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…6e64backed Raducanu | 39c | 132.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Rybakina | 62c | 132.26$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Raducanu | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x431b…1d9cbacked Rybakina | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Rybakina | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 236 | 70.8%167 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Rybakina | 62c | 84.06$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5e…3668backed Raducanu | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Rybakina | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Raducanu | 21c | 66.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Raducanu | 21c | 66.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Raducanu | 21c | 66.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +8.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Raducanu | 21c | 66.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Raducanu | 39c | 62.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…ab04backed Raducanu | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Rybakina | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Raducanu | 39c | 45.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…2de2backed Rybakina | 62c | 23.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x225f…5ec6backed Rybakina | 80c | 18.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Rybakina | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.