NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd604375ad2891b7627eeb8739bb0e6835e80a553b0f7dd758033c00f705d990a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf395…8e3cbacked Under | 34c | 3,319$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.85 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 66c | 3,153$2,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 1,261$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.18 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 51c | 514$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.94 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a1…2974backed Under | 26c | 432.12$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.08 | 173 | 31.8%55 W · 118 L | -8.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 70c | 430.37$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.37 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Over | 70c | 428.73$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.62 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Under | 63c | 258$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.99 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd403…048abacked Under | 64c | 182.55$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.83 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 37c | 140.95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Under | 12c | 117$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e6…23e4backed Under | 40c | 74.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.2wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Under | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 210 | 56.2%118 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Under | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Under | 59c | 63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…04f4backed Over | 58c | 62.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 226 | 33.2%75 W · 151 L | +14.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…e2c1backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 34c | 54.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 32c | 50.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 37c | 49.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Under | 59c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…512cbacked Under | 51c | 41.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 45c | 40.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a3…1943backed Under | 55c | 40.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ce…14b4backed Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 246 | 45.9%113 W · 133 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ae…89d9backed Over | 41c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5this page
- Mavericks vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.