TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,859
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,894

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,859 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf395…8e3cbacked Under34c3,319$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.8511839.8%47 W · 71 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over66c3,153$2,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0728,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under51c1,261$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.185,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under51c514$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.941,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed Under26c432.12$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.0817331.8%55 W · 118 L-8.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Over70c430.37$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.3713951.1%71 W · 68 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f6a…04ebbacked Over70c428.73$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.6235447.7%169 W · 185 L-10.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1532,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Under63c258$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.9969049.4%341 W · 349 L-30.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd403…048abacked Under64c182.55$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.832060%12 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Over37c140.95$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4876247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ee…5c69backed Under12c117$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6314137.6%53 W · 88 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7e6…23e4backed Under40c74.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-3.2wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed Under51c70$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.721056.2%118 W · 92 L+10.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77c4…d390backed Under58c68.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020762.3%129 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under63c63.49$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37bb…c71fbacked Under59c63$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.174146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb94…04f4backed Over58c62.17$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1122633.2%75 W · 151 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b17…e2c1backed Under51c58.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304050%20 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under34c54.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.291,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under32c50.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.33,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Over37c49.08$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.111,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06f4…758dbacked Under59c44$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.963348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfdb…512cbacked Under51c41.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.994959.2%29 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over45c40.76$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.422,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30a3…1943backed Under55c40.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.423050%15 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7ce…14b4backed Under63c31.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012157%69 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x263f…c744backed Under63c31.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010357.3%59 W · 44 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6894…59d8backed Over42c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.424645.9%113 W · 133 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x96ae…89d9backed Over41c28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.522657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1014252.1%74 W · 68 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.