NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25b3bc49b2c5d325b37e5cb04f066a4fba1b796440d5b440773e33a293257f50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Trail Blazers, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $659,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $677,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $659,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 575,338$281,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281,930.96 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Mavericks | 51c | 553,067$282,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271,002.87 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 51c | 16,977$8,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,343.82 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Mavericks | 34c | 15,358$5,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,136.22 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18d1…dbcbbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 13,212$6,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,475 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers | 64c | 12,822$8,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,206.22 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Mavericks | 52c | 12,472$6,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,026.25 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mavericks | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc90b…f45dbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 7,174$3,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,483.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…8f58backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 7,139$3,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,498.24 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks | 51c | 6,649$3,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,229.88 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Mavericks | 51c | 4,088$2,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,003.12 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 2,536$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.18 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Mavericks | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e09…2d11backed Mavericks | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfe…4feebacked Trail Blazers | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 1,980$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.46 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Mavericks | 51c | 1,667$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.83 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Mavericks | 51c | 1,015$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.75 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Mavericks | 54c | 1,005$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.47 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb461…d1dabacked Mavericks | 50c | 693.88$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 584.15$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.68 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Mavericks | 57c | 363.62$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.5 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Mavericks | 53c | 321.74$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Mavericks | 50c | 297.22$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.22 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c1…18c7backed Mavericks | 54c | 268.52$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.52 | 140 | 42.9%60 W · 80 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…f12fbacked Mavericks | 54c | 231.48$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 230 | 58.7%135 W · 95 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Mavericks | 54c | 225.93$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.93 | 182 | 40.7%74 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Mavericks | 50c | 219$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.92 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…d55dbacked Mavericks | 37c | 210.05$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.12 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Mavericks | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 263 | 39.5%104 W · 159 L | -13.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Mavericks | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.8 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 199$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.54 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Mavericks | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 271 | 61.3%166 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Mavericks | 53c | 154.63$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 111$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Trail Blazers | 65c | 95.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Trail Blazers | 46c | 71.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 68.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Mavericks | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Mavericks | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 183 | 47.5%87 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Trail Blazers | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Mavericks | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Mavericks | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Mavericks | 50c | 37.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…04a9backed Mavericks | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Mavericks | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Mavericks | 49c | 30.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0e…f0bbbacked Trail Blazers | 75c | 26.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Mavericks | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Mavericks | 52c | 23.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)this page
- Mavericks vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)Trail Blazers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.