South American Leagues · resolved market
Will São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd679d71787593a03c73fac33fcc9d88ef4064cb16f64eb2e01c0ecedfb18403d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 77c | 2,214$1,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.29 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 73c | 1,135$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.83 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7e…4bb1backed Yes | 27c | 1,058$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31cb…a34bbacked No | 70c | 731$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.3 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf1…d61abacked Yes | 27c | 644$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 19c | 600.56$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.53 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 23c | 398.81$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 11c | 370.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Yes | 24c | 365.74$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 20c | 330.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 77c | 301.55$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 79c | 265.59$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 260.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 29c | 226.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 73c | 199.14$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 70c | 171.14$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 16c | 161.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 68c | 161$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Yes | 22c | 151.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…aa98backed Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 59c | 146.97$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…bf2ebacked Yes | 28c | 137.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf484…e79cbacked Yes | 14c | 137.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Yes | 19c | 131.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 71c | 130.9$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 30c | 125.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…a736backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…5f97backed Yes | 30c | 108.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…da4bbacked Yes | 27c | 101$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 78 | 14.1%11 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 186 | 31.2%58 W · 128 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 70c | 93.88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Yes | 22c | 91.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed No | 73c | 91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 90.62$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 23c | 88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 72c | 87.21$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf65f…134ebacked Yes | 28c | 85.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 28c | 83.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 26c | 83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeebe…72f2backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d68…9ff7backed Yes | 43c | 69.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 23c | 69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 24c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 60.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 69c | 58.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed No | 77c | 51.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…e3cfbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 73c | 38.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 74c | 38.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked No | 78c | 30.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 183 | 59%108 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 151 | 43%65 W · 86 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 27.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…a334backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 70c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed No | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 194 | 37.1%72 W · 122 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 70c | 18.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 71c | 15.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 331 | 52.6%174 W · 157 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed No | 76c | 13.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will São Paulo FC vs. CA Paranaense end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-07-22?Yes won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-07-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.