AI · resolved market
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https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd70b86e169b8063d91474937b9b1590439f16f6479080d7ed15f3caa32f43e99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 17,125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -65%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 50c | 834.03$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.96 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7265…e943backed No | 6c | 738.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 33c | 664.57$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.83 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…9886backed Yes | 62c | 563.33$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 65c | 521$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.83 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 8c | 503.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 14c | 500$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 43c | 451$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.01 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 21c | 343.31$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.44 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 50c | 305$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…60afbacked No | 73c | 250$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 64c | 222$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.08 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 34c | 160.61$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd94e…e127backed No | 77c | 157.59$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 26c | 155$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 13c | 132.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 26c | 111$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 104$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d15…1347backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.49 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 32c | 93.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ae…61edbacked No | 67c | 90.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 19c | 82.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…8908backed No | 64c | 78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…f0cfbacked No | 67c | 69.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 68c | 58.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…3338backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…521cbacked No | 40c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 59c | 26.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…2e86backed No | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.