NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd70bc1ac25c957c18d9b3dad5d1246e0f2d0e5f5da41adde26a24d9c3cd565ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Cavaliers, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Suns | 53c | 15,631$8,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,346.62 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…42bfbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 9,999$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,099.55 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 6,341$2,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,989.39 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6767…d905backed Suns | 49c | 3,139$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.78 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Cavaliers | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Suns | 51c | 1,979$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.02 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Suns | 49c | 1,890$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.8 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Suns | 50c | 1,662$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.17 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Cavaliers | 47c | 1,277$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.19 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 1,098$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.9 | 238 | 50%119 W · 119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Cavaliers | 47c | 1,049$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.17 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Cavaliers | 47c | 900$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 461 | 45.6%210 W · 251 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Cavaliers | 47c | 700$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 623$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.27 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Suns | 50c | 558.16$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Cavaliers | 48c | 542.97$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.61 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1e…bb68backed Suns | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Suns | 54c | 461$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.06 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Cavaliers | 51c | 454.3$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…16c1backed Cavaliers | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Suns | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Suns | 49c | 367.42$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.83 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Suns | 49c | 340$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.4 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Cavaliers | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 303.66$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.72 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Suns | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Suns | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Suns | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 77.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Suns | 47c | 76.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Suns | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Suns | 49c | 61.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e1…4cc7backed Cavaliers | 52c | 57.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Suns | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Suns | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Cavaliers | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Suns | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Cavaliers | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Suns | 52c | 21.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Suns won
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Suns won
- Cavaliers vs. SunsSuns won
- Cavaliers vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Cavaliers vs. Suns: O/U 219.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Suns: O/U 220.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Suns: O/U 221.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Suns: O/U 222.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Suns: O/U 223.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Suns: O/U 224.5Over won
- Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Suns won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Suns won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Suns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.