Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7633ae03006a0735c1acce898e8a1765e64c76bab76c38f52893d9fe15d099a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 14c | 755.35$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.69 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 34c | 493.18$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.2 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 423.07$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.09 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 345.63$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.83 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 312.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 37c | 301$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.38 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 286$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.89 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 68c | 225.5$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 212.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 190.46$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 152.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 147.31$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…cb05backed Yes | 41c | 142.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 27c | 141.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 41c | 140$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 72c | 139.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 10c | 136.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 39c | 113.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 110.7$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 56c | 110.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 30c | 104.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…3ebdbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 58c | 99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 11c | 94.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de6…f3e4backed Yes | 42c | 92.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 91.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 85.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 45c | 82.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 79.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 76c | 78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 77c | 77.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 76.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 30c | 73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 24c | 69.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 61.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 35c | 61.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 58.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 55.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 78c | 52.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed Yes | 34c | 49.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 46.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 46.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 45.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 73c | 41.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…dbb2backed Yes | 33c | 37.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 60c | 35.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 35.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 71c | 33.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89d7…6ff5backed No | 71c | 31.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf89…326dbacked No | 71c | 31.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 39c | 30.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 38c | 26.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 75c | 26.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 75c | 19.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 73c | 19.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 58c | 18.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a34…2e4abacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.