Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01b978f5a088504319d6507eae79552a68e0aa69901b0fb751e8b3855d02bab1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 50c | 1,626$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.53 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 38c | 1,076$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.24 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 49c | 675$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad1…3556backed Yes | 50c | 605.46$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 27c | 540.81$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.81 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 54c | 478.44$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.25 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 48c | 422.76$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 30c | 417.91$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.93 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 364.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 50c | 343.54$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.05 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 286$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 45c | 277.77$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 52c | 245.93$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.91 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 38c | 238.62$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 48c | 231.95$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.33 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 68c | 219.33$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 73c | 200.31$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 190.46$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.52 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…12d4backed No | 50c | 145.64$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 51c | 143.49$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.91 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 20c | 142.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 141.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 76c | 137.77$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 69c | 135$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 128$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 42c | 116.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 34c | 114.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 55c | 101.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 13c | 100.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 77c | 99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 56c | 93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 53c | 90.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 90.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 49c | 89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 49c | 85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 52c | 84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 81.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 42c | 81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed No | 50c | 80.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 50c | 78.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 32c | 77.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 75c | 75.87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 75c | 73.79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 62c | 72.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 51c | 71.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 46c | 65.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 55.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed No | 42c | 55.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 48c | 55.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 46c | 52.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 47c | 50.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 54c | 45.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2975…56e0backed No | 58c | 44.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dca…4183backed No | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…6854backed Yes | 46c | 42.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 50c | 41.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 26c | 41.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 41.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed No | 56c | 41.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 48c | 40.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 49c | 40.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked Yes | 46c | 40.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bb…e731backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked Yes | 51c | 39.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 38c | 39.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 39c | 38.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 55c | 35.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 35c | 34.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 48c | 33.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 33c | 32.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 73c | 32.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9141…fffbbacked No | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 51c | 31.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 53c | 31.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 42c | 31.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 49c | 30.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 49c | 30.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 67c | 29.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 57c | 27.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 54c | 26.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 46c | 26.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed No | 50c | 25.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 25.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 47c | 22.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 49c | 22.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…392cbacked Yes | 52c | 21.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 50c | 20.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec05…d8cdbacked Yes | 50c | 20.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 80c | 19.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.