Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7920cb9f02e0c9db2f4c43216ddcf45147bb76be8e6832599b7934470c21cb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1985…033fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,010$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca3…93eabacked No | 52c | 4,800$2,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,304 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -70%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9652…1ab4backed Yes | 48c | 4,800$2,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,304 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8f…3631backed No | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…b09bbacked Yes | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 6c | 982.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…b48fbacked Yes | 78c | 680.38$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…30e0backed Yes | 42c | 445.46$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.03 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09f6…f4f5backed Yes | 9c | 316.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked No | 23c | 311.78$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.03 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf954…dec8backed Yes | 17c | 286.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 76c | 249.66$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.69 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 9c | 244.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 15c | 232.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.21 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 228$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 14c | 220$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 44c | 212.37$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.58 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 23c | 210.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 32c | 207.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.19 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 66c | 200$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.12 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 198.88$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.46 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 19c | 196.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.93 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 12c | 189.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 53c | 161.52$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.49 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…fbbdbacked Yes | 14c | 157.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4611…3790backed Yes | 10c | 141.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 139.1$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x871f…afb9backed Yes | 13c | 139.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 14c | 131.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked Yes | 21c | 130$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 124.12$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 30c | 118.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 14c | 114.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d24…360abacked Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec9…6daabacked Yes | 15c | 107$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 44c | 101.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e2…d6d2backed Yes | 16c | 100.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 48c | 92.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc57a…5759backed Yes | 32c | 89.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 86.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 74c | 86.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 29c | 85.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 44c | 83.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f1…b31bbacked Yes | 16c | 82.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97d…7871backed Yes | 39c | 82.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1c…c73bbacked Yes | 22c | 80.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 21c | 75.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 15c | 73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 53c | 72.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…0a1abacked Yes | 76c | 70.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 43c | 70.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 52c | 69.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 18c | 69.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 70c | 64.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 45c | 57.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 52c | 51.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 41c | 48.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 30c | 46.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed Yes | 54c | 45.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 79c | 44.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 62c | 40.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 59c | 37.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 66c | 33.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa722…7f70backed Yes | 39c | 25.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 50c | 24.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 63c | 22.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed Yes | 63c | 20.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba1c…05cfbacked Yes | 56c | 19.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 76c | 17.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 2°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 4°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.