Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0504ba32e4f8b4c614437de2d881b84902a13c9205242f3db13baeffcb38ea0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,503$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,108$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 17c | 799.96$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.7 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 4c | 454.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 405.82$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 379.03$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.86 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 300.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa56b…06b7backed Yes | 5c | 298.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 6c | 297.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 296.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 291.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfce…6462backed Yes | 6c | 272.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 35c | 270.07$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.52 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 5c | 269.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 42c | 215.73$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 33c | 212.41$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 11c | 194.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 14c | 181.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 173.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 12c | 167.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 35c | 148.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 12c | 143.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe620…1643backed Yes | 8c | 139.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 37c | 136.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 15c | 131.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 18c | 130$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 129.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 13c | 127.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 36c | 125.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 115.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 17c | 107.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 16c | 92.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de0…2a56backed Yes | 17c | 91.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 38c | 90.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 85.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 15c | 84.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 74c | 84.37$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 83.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba1c…05cfbacked Yes | 30c | 72.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 20c | 69.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 79c | 63.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…49ebbacked Yes | 40c | 57.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed No | 69c | 55.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 28c | 53.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 36c | 52.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 35c | 50.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 45.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…d948backed Yes | 34c | 43.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2049…d998backed No | 61c | 42.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…1929backed Yes | 33c | 42.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 28c | 41.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 33c | 38.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 68c | 36.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 36.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…c68dbacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 70c | 34.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…13e5backed Yes | 34c | 33.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 68c | 27.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x047e…d7a1backed No | 60c | 27.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 63c | 26.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 60c | 23.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 72c | 22.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…b489backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 72cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…4a73backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 73c | 19.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…2015backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…c030backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 2°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 4°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.