Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb5e8187e44d7175a49db2be97d8544f5f4c5ffd8c89c4cbf83ead5ac9a1b61a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 11c | 821.83$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.18 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 22c | 544.8$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.86 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 78c | 543.51$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.06 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…30e0backed Yes | 57c | 523.14$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.34 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 25c | 385.17$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.38 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 4c | 382.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 12c | 369.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.77 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 9c | 343.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.67 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf954…dec8backed Yes | 46c | 328.8$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 313.11$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 23c | 306.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.84 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 305.73$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 56c | 273.79$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.42 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 263.35$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe871…b19bbacked No | 66c | 256.76$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…0a1abacked Yes | 48c | 248.4$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 37c | 246.13$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.24 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…67b0backed No | 50c | 241.64$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 239.37$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 43c | 235.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.08 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 59c | 224.4$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.63 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 28c | 220.59$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.5 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 38c | 214.11$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.09 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 42c | 212.37$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.73 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 194.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 190.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.06 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 15c | 177.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.62 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 59c | 169.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 32c | 166.02$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.93 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 15c | 154.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.22 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 152.32$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.21 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 28c | 147.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.1 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57a…5759backed Yes | 35c | 136.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfce…6462backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 35c | 129.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 27c | 113.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.77 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 12c | 113.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.3 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 37c | 110$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 110$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 107.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 27c | 106.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.39 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 105$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 63c | 103.38$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 11c | 102.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.22 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 33c | 99.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.47 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 43c | 93.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 93.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 18c | 92.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 41c | 92.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 58c | 84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 40c | 80.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 20c | 80.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.06 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 80.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 78.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 28c | 73.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 56c | 68.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 42c | 67.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 61c | 65.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 25c | 63.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…9501backed Yes | 32c | 61.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 20c | 60.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 62c | 60.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1c…c73bbacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 59c | 58.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 58.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 61c | 56.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 31c | 53.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 42c | 51.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 78c | 51.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 78c | 51.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed Yes | 41c | 48.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 41c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 44c | 45.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 66c | 43.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 41c | 43.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 25c | 43.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 78c | 43.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 27c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 59c | 42.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 42c | 38.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…2cbebacked Yes | 28c | 37.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2f…f102backed Yes | 79c | 34.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…1929backed Yes | 41c | 34.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18d…9dcabacked No | 73c | 34.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 60c | 31.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 36c | 30.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 74c | 29.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed No | 72c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 78c | 28.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 2°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 4°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.