Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd798180f65f99a946b217c68299087dd2ea3a4913b7da1028c7ef545e429b0ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 39c | 2,339$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.92 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 61c | 611.38$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.64 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 61c | 331$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.09 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 49c | 265.26$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.06 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 62c | 252.84$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.38 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 61c | 232$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.48 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 60c | 221.49$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked No | 24c | 203.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 39c | 200.76$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 199.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 63c | 180.16$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 43c | 175.17$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.32 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 37c | 174.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 37c | 160.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.14 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 64c | 159.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 39c | 159.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 13c | 153.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…700cbacked No | 12c | 125.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 17c | 125.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 73c | 122.7$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 37c | 115.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 36c | 111$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 66c | 107$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1362…2081backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 68c | 96.69$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 29c | 95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 81.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 70.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 50c | 68.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 35c | 65.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…1d3ebacked Yes | 62c | 64.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 49c | 61.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x360f…31a1backed Yes | 61c | 58.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…c4afbacked Yes | 61c | 57.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc78a…ba6dbacked Yes | 62c | 57.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594f…7f1abacked Yes | 61c | 55.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…c40fbacked Yes | 69c | 43.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 57c | 34.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 32.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 61c | 27.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x091c…81fdbacked Yes | 61c | 26.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…cd87backed Yes | 48c | 24.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 64c | 23.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…83ccbacked Yes | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 19.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 77c | 16.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 78c | 15.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 75c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 76c | 13.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.