NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd81b4f286fbc2d2f4fcb575b46bb6ba42a3fe1e37cb2c723f44dac69f1a14f3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nuggets | 54c | 13,334$7,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,181.02 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Pelicans | 47c | 5,649$2,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,655.1 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 47c | 3,147$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.67 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Pelicans | 46c | 2,608$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.68 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Nuggets | 52c | 2,601$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.48 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pelicans | 46c | 2,400$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Pelicans | 52c | 1,761$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.5 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pelicans | 57c | 771.08$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.42 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nuggets | 51c | 762.09$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.47 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Nuggets | 50c | 706.12$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Pelicans | 47c | 598.11$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.11 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Nuggets | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Pelicans | 46c | 471.54$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.91 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Pelicans | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 41c | 239.76$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.77 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…5d26backed Pelicans | 51c | 194.12$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125e…583fbacked Pelicans | 57c | 190$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.64 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Pelicans | 52c | 116.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed Pelicans | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Pelicans | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a0…a986backed Nuggets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Nuggets | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Nuggets | 51c | 78.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Nuggets | 56c | 62.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Pelicans | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Nuggets | 53c | 56.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…cbccbacked Pelicans | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Nuggets | 48c | 45.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…82b5backed Nuggets | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Nuggets | 55c | 36.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Nuggets | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked Pelicans | 48c | 21.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef2…6e74backed Pelicans | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Pelicans won
- Nuggets vs. PelicansNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.