NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37e092f909ba344f0725b80204767c35ccce1cd1ac882d8f09a2ccfbd77e27e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nuggets | 46c | 29,287$13,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,802.75 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Pelicans | 54c | 7,407$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 54c | 6,193$3,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,371.46 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Pelicans | 54c | 5,220$2,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,818.8 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…d171backed Pelicans | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,119.99 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Nuggets | 47c | 3,565$1,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,889.45 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pelicans | 56c | 2,970$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,652.43 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Pelicans | 54c | 2,500$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pelicans | 54c | 2,400$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Nuggets | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 443 | 37.9%168 W · 275 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Pelicans | 53c | 1,451$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.06 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Pelicans | 54c | 1,100$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Pelicans | 57c | 914.04$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Nuggets | 45c | 802.57$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.68 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Nuggets | 43c | 794.37$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.55 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nuggets | 44c | 700$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.5 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Nuggets | 46c | 600$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Pelicans | 54c | 538.32$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.69 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Pelicans | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Nuggets | 45c | 498.15$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.98 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Pelicans | 54c | 493$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.58 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Pelicans | 57c | 453.42$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.74 | 206 | 38.3%79 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 44c | 398.29$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.73 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Nuggets | 45c | 374$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.7 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Nuggets | 44c | 363.64$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.64 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Pelicans | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Pelicans | 53c | 330.95$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.4 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Pelicans | 54c | 294$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.76 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans | 49c | 218.74$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.18 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Pelicans | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nuggets | 45c | 173.18$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.25 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Nuggets | 45c | 160$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…634ebacked Nuggets | 35c | 145$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.75 | 400 | 35.5%142 W · 258 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Nuggets | 45c | 130.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.79 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Pelicans | 58c | 123.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eca…6882backed Nuggets | 47c | 119.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.15 | 159 | 36.5%58 W · 101 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Pelicans | 56c | 103.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Pelicans | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Nuggets | 47c | 92.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b8…898abacked Nuggets | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 45c | 83.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Nuggets | 37c | 73.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Nuggets | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 381 | 52.8%201 W · 180 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5256…24a5backed Pelicans | 55c | 62.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked Pelicans | 54c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Nuggets | 45c | 51.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Pelicans | 53c | 50.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Pelicans | 55c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…aca7backed Pelicans | 55c | 47.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -11.5wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Nuggets | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Nuggets | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 225 | 56.9%128 W · 97 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e51…741cbacked Nuggets | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Pelicans | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nuggets | 45c | 38.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Nuggets | 43c | 35.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Pelicans | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Nuggets | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Pelicans | 54c | 33.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…c64cbacked Pelicans | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Pelicans | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 317 | 45.4%144 W · 173 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Pelicans | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…84babacked Nuggets | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Pelicans | 58c | 23.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Pelicans | 54c | 22.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Pelicans | 53c | 21.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Pelicans | 55c | 21.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Pelicans | 55c | 21.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 442 | 43.7%193 W · 249 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb15…f4f8backed Pelicans | 75c | 16.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Pelicans won
- Nuggets vs. PelicansNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.