Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd859bc44e9fbf4476fe0e40717ee6d408e29ca6e83e0c6f6b8c3ad5b7a96fa7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x153e…98afbacked Yes | 0c | 10,295$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb69…2f8fbacked Yes | 0c | 8,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 38c | 1,207$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.58 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 30c | 1,087$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.42 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 444.08$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.94 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 24c | 438.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.02 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 392$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.52 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 388.71$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 23c | 376.14$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 78c | 316.77$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 79c | 314.14$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 217$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 22c | 202.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 21c | 201.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 199$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 195.05$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 25c | 174.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 28c | 172$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 72c | 169$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 163.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 143.05$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…e4f9backed Yes | 23c | 134.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 71c | 116.38$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 115$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 76c | 114.69$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 113.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…485fbacked Yes | 29c | 104.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 27c | 103.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 102$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…b109backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 21c | 92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 91.01$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…a602backed Yes | 22c | 85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 19c | 81.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…3756backed Yes | 25c | 80.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 26c | 76.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 74.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 24c | 73.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 68.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 72c | 59.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 22c | 59.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 59.06$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 25c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 29c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 54.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 77c | 52.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…bf31backed No | 79c | 51.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 40c | 50.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 46.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 46c | 44.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 42.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 36.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 47c | 32.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 73c | 32.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 30.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…c740backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 26.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…c58bbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 52c | 23.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 75c | 16.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 14.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed No | 74c | 13.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.