CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Alliance (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8d90552f176526d8867e042e42de548fdd088b3a91a90a512cef50e139123be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Allianceof Team Nemesis, Alliance
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Alliance | 74c | 7,000$5,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,804.63 | 502 | 54.2%272 W · 230 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed Team Nemesis | 25c | 4,947$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.75 | 368 | 45.1%166 W · 202 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Team Nemesis | 30c | 1,922$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577 | 1,629 | 44.8%730 W · 899 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Team Nemesis | 28c | 1,786$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.08 | 557 | 36.3%202 W · 355 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ea…49e9backed Team Nemesis | 40c | 1,020$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.92 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Alliance | 71c | 888$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.52 | 1,146 | 49.4%566 W · 580 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6096…0f9cbacked Alliance | 72c | 809.83$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Team Nemesis | 27c | 671.89$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.74 | 647 | 48.4%313 W · 334 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Team Nemesis | 27c | 599.12$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.76 | 5,095 | 55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…eedebacked Alliance | 68c | 403.82$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.22 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Alliance | 73c | 378.66$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 1,523 | 51.5%785 W · 738 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked Alliance | 60c | 345.84$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.34 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +11.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Alliance | 73c | 342.82$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 214 | 63.6%136 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…5f4fbacked Alliance | 73c | 342$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.42 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Alliance | 61c | 270$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Team Nemesis | 44c | 235.75$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.52 | 285 | 49.5%141 W · 144 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf36e…f91cbacked Team Nemesis | 28c | 219.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 303 | 38.9%118 W · 185 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…f3e6backed Team Nemesis | 29c | 206.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 425 | 38.6%164 W · 261 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Alliance | 56c | 205.36$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.36 | 485 | 62.7%304 W · 181 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Alliance | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1,790 | 59.2%1,060 W · 730 L | +106.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…5ce4backed Alliance | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Alliance | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 687 | 49.6%341 W · 346 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Alliance | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Team Nemesis | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,895 | 47.8%906 W · 989 L | -50.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c1…489fbacked Team Nemesis | 34c | 88.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Alliance | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 700 | 60.1%421 W · 279 L | +70.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…da67backed Alliance | 73c | 60.6$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 387 | 54.8%212 W · 175 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03e…727abacked Team Nemesis | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Team Nemesis | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 205 | 56.6%116 W · 89 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Team Nemesis | 29c | 46.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 256 | 43.4%111 W · 145 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b6…f439backed Team Nemesis | 25c | 42.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x917b…cb42backed Alliance | 58c | 39.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Alliance | 70c | 33.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 541 | 48.6%263 W · 278 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…0335backed Alliance | 57c | 30.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 365 | 54.8%200 W · 165 L | +23.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…2ffbbacked Alliance | 52c | 30.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d98…1c46backed Alliance | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Alliance | 73c | 27.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 243 | 63%153 W · 90 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…5369backed Alliance | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 187 | 58.3%109 W · 78 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…b241backed Alliance | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Alliance | 72c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 240 | 54.6%131 W · 109 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Alliance (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - XSE Pro League PlayoffsAlliance won
- Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 WinnerAlliance won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Alliance (-3.5) vs Team Nemesis (+3.5)Alliance won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Nemesis (-6.5) vs Alliance (+6.5)Alliance won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.