TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Allianceof Alliance, Team Nemesis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$312,134
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$416,622

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $312,134 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 186 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Team Nemesis44c20,000$8,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,799.9775652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2787…e0c4backed Alliance56c18,746$10,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,248.021163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Alliance57c17,500$9,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,524.9133343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team Nemesis21c16,833$3,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,460.041,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Team Nemesis45c10,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50033359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Nemesis46c8,530$3,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,905.2981843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79e8…8c49backed Team Nemesis41c8,500$3,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,44520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0852…655cbacked Team Nemesis4c6,843$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.587617.1%13 W · 63 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-54.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed Alliance57c6,482$3,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,785.6536555.9%204 W · 161 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Team Nemesis43c4,768$2,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,03332542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19d0…2101backed Alliance77c4,641$3,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.213560%21 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Alliance57c4,384$2,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,904.0538358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed Team Nemesis41c4,187$1,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,716.5136645.4%166 W · 200 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Team Nemesis45c3,915$1,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,757.751,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Alliance56c2,996$1,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.0921854.1%118 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81f4…8300backed Alliance55c2,550$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.997459.5%44 W · 30 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+21.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Team Nemesis8c2,530$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.193,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xba06…8024backed Team Nemesis44c2,500$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1003661.1%22 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8813…47e6backed Alliance56c2,494$1,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.366560%39 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04cf…9f77backed Alliance55c2,475$1,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.755160.8%31 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bc5…e563backed Team Nemesis3c2,241$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.238534.1%29 W · 56 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Team Nemesis40c2,157$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.7161034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77ac…1bf6backed Alliance56c2,146$1,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.8227961.3%171 W · 108 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Team Nemesis47c2,026$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95024038.3%92 W · 148 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe480…ee6cbacked Alliance55c2,011$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.954751.1%24 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Team Nemesis45c2,000$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89017148%82 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Team Nemesis1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ac…a2c9backed Alliance56c1,971$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.245455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Alliance54c1,866$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.4719448.5%94 W · 100 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Alliance57c1,754$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.391,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a2e…e1b2backed Alliance59c1,695$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.9220156.7%114 W · 87 L-0.9wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1572…7991backed Alliance55c1,522$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.96546.2%30 W · 35 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Nemesis44c1,509$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.022,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked Team Nemesis1c1,503$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.221522.3%48 W · 167 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-45.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Nemesis10c1,361$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.74,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Team Nemesis28c1,293$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.052,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x45c6…0123backed Team Nemesis44c1,276$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.476743.3%29 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Alliance58c1,253$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.943,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Team Nemesis44c1,250$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5451,31053.7%703 W · 607 L+32.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Team Nemesis46c1,178$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.41,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Nemesis46c1,174$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.515,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked Team Nemesis47c1,161$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.241,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb875…ac87backed Team Nemesis16c1,063$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17016949.1%83 W · 86 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a1c…9867backed Alliance57c1,030$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.742548%12 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c49…dd2dbacked Alliance54c1,010$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.65066%33 W · 17 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+19.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d49…7cc0backed Alliance57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4303863.2%24 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb065…60ccbacked Alliance56c1,000$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4452944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Alliance63c872.71$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.422,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Alliance54c833.33$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.339158.2%53 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe881…fb3dbacked Alliance59c766.24$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.1635466.1%234 W · 120 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed Alliance79c759.49$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.4913253.8%71 W · 61 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Team Nemesis28c757.12$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.82,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x961a…aa6abacked Alliance54c749.99$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34527548%132 W · 143 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Team Nemesis16c748.92$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.3540137.2%149 W · 252 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Team Nemesis45c706.44$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.922447.8%107 W · 117 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Nemesis12c705.99$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.765,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Alliance53c700$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32946345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Team Nemesis44c658.95$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.942,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Team Nemesis43c604.9$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.1136152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Team Nemesis42c568.87$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.3740140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Alliance67c553.57$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.931,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Team Nemesis5c552.65$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.152,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Nemesis32c547.41$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.716,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb819…cc67backed Team Nemesis23c525.55$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.2924155.6%134 W · 107 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Team Nemesis19c521.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Alliance56c467.25$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.2526360.8%160 W · 103 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc326…e622backed Team Nemesis43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004351.2%22 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Alliance69c432.67$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.342,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Team Nemesis8c421.49$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7769624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e2…d472backed Team Nemesis11c419.27$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1226624.4%65 W · 201 L-26.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-33.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed Alliance56c401.71$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.7521346.9%100 W · 113 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Team Nemesis23c397.08$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3875438.9%293 W · 461 L-38.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Alliance53c386.96$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.1248948.9%239 W · 250 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe45a…2399backed Team Nemesis42c367.49$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.345446.3%25 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Alliance56c356$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.6128549.5%141 W · 144 L+1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed Team Nemesis11c354.81$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0327831.7%88 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb20b…a3e1backed Alliance56c326.36$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.63836.8%14 W · 24 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-28.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Alliance56c312.5$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.55,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Nemesis15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc7b…7a75backed Team Nemesis5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Team Nemesis27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8155941%229 W · 330 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef9…8731backed Team Nemesis45c282$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.0237453.2%199 W · 175 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Team Nemesis16c280$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.62,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Alliance73c278.51$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.992,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked Team Nemesis43c270.62$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3719443.3%84 W · 110 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed Team Nemesis37c263.79$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2213754%74 W · 63 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Alliance79c253.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.169561.1%58 W · 37 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Alliance57c250$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.544939.2%176 W · 273 L-0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked Alliance59c250$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.565650.3%330 W · 326 L-15.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Team Nemesis8c249$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.422,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdde5…d1acbacked Team Nemesis46c236.02$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.577045.7%32 W · 38 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Team Nemesis18c233.39$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.781,65032.7%540 W · 1,110 L-49.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Alliance65c231.24$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.2440558.8%238 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Team Nemesis44c222.68$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9829046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Alliance56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8845162.3%281 W · 170 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3265…cf6bbacked Team Nemesis17c199.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3414331.5%45 W · 98 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe077…f5eebacked Team Nemesis45c197.78$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8920041.5%83 W · 117 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Team Nemesis43c196.47$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.4841054.6%224 W · 186 L-2.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-8.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Team Nemesis22c190.91$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4252837.1%196 W · 332 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Team Nemesis24c190.24$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7463038.6%243 W · 387 L-26.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.