TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Bucaramanga: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Manuel La Serna

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Juan Manuel La Sernaof Carlos Maria Zarate, Juan Manuel La Serna
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,363

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,363 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x837a…77e1backed Carlos Maria Zarate0c36,460$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.461216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+101.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Carlos Maria Zarate17c5,092$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8787,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Carlos Maria Zarate1c3,853$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.722,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Carlos Maria Zarate26c2,442$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.132,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Carlos Maria Zarate21c2,129$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.072,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Juan Manuel La Serna78c1,974$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.91,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c32…d322backed Juan Manuel La Serna71c1,555$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.7612066.7%80 W · 40 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Juan Manuel La Serna65c1,539$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.8555646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Juan Manuel La Serna77c1,061$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.886,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Carlos Maria Zarate29c999.99$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2904,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Carlos Maria Zarate29c958.99$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.4930530.8%94 W · 211 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Juan Manuel La Serna77c800$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1842,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Carlos Maria Zarate22c752.1$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.933,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd425…603ebacked Carlos Maria Zarate22c731.7$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.974751.1%24 W · 23 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-14.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Juan Manuel La Serna79c696.99$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.691,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Juan Manuel La Serna73c589$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.429450%47 W · 47 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Carlos Maria Zarate19c527.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,13027.9%315 W · 815 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Carlos Maria Zarate21c404.79$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.896,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Juan Manuel La Serna68c367.65$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.6553058.1%308 W · 222 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe44c…f15cbacked Carlos Maria Zarate15c361.52$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7313748.9%67 W · 70 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Carlos Maria Zarate21c338.07$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7028724.4%70 W · 217 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1be…6471backed Juan Manuel La Serna70c285.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.714161%25 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Carlos Maria Zarate24c278.37$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.036,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Carlos Maria Zarate23c256.81$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.461,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Carlos Maria Zarate10c250.15$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.973,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x288a…768abacked Juan Manuel La Serna66c248.48$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.484259.5%25 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x482c…4da1backed Carlos Maria Zarate30c239.73$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.317447.7%83 W · 91 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Carlos Maria Zarate32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641,26634.2%433 W · 833 L-43.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Carlos Maria Zarate17c195.08$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.253,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Carlos Maria Zarate10c193.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.064415.9%7 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13c9…5e53backed Carlos Maria Zarate38c165$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6911850.8%60 W · 58 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9a3…f319backed Carlos Maria Zarate30c148.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Juan Manuel La Serna67c148.14$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.891,10352.9%583 W · 520 L+2.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc629…5e51backed Juan Manuel La Serna69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9357349.6%284 W · 289 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x150c…add3backed Juan Manuel La Serna69c137.68$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.6820670.4%145 W · 61 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Carlos Maria Zarate32c137.35$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.131,97346.3%914 W · 1,059 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x700a…58a5backed Carlos Maria Zarate23c136$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5218020.6%37 W · 143 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-20.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Carlos Maria Zarate12c131.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.141,37916.4%226 W · 1,153 L-108.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Carlos Maria Zarate19c130.33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.47,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Carlos Maria Zarate49c128.69$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0615248.7%74 W · 78 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe026…2b3abacked Juan Manuel La Serna66c123.73$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7350364.6%325 W · 178 L+0.6wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb885…c8babacked Carlos Maria Zarate17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Juan Manuel La Serna53c113.25$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.722,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d00…95b2backed Juan Manuel La Serna76c111.08$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.222045%9 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Carlos Maria Zarate28c84.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.672,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f6f…706abacked Carlos Maria Zarate13c84.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9740%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Juan Manuel La Serna69c82.79$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.512,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bc2…7ed7backed Juan Manuel La Serna66c75.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.576753.7%36 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x639e…a9d4backed Carlos Maria Zarate32c63.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Juan Manuel La Serna79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2959965.8%394 W · 205 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f40…5401backed Carlos Maria Zarate32c62.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.931154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1093…d547backed Carlos Maria Zarate16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Carlos Maria Zarate18c55.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2611352.2%59 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Juan Manuel La Serna72c55.51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.512,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Carlos Maria Zarate30c52.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1650731.2%158 W · 349 L-41.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-36.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Juan Manuel La Serna78c52$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1834744.4%154 W · 193 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a6a…9c4cbacked Juan Manuel La Serna63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.512854.7%70 W · 58 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe761…4f54backed Juan Manuel La Serna75c45.1$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.526349.4%130 W · 133 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Juan Manuel La Serna63c41.96$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.551,10650.3%556 W · 550 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3900…145ebacked Carlos Maria Zarate38c39.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154634.8%16 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99c4…0cccbacked Juan Manuel La Serna73c38.36$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.369341.9%39 W · 54 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd77…ef21backed Juan Manuel La Serna69c36$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3465264.1%418 W · 234 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Juan Manuel La Serna68c34.45$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.021,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Carlos Maria Zarate36c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81,14247.3%540 W · 602 L+65.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc57f…cfffbacked Carlos Maria Zarate36c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.816447.6%78 W · 86 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4bd…6cecbacked Carlos Maria Zarate36c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.823248.3%112 W · 120 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Juan Manuel La Serna65c28.57$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1047453.2%252 W · 222 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7463…df9dbacked Juan Manuel La Serna79c27.9$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2488…ff0ebacked Juan Manuel La Serna67c27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9148650.6%246 W · 240 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Juan Manuel La Serna75c25.62$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.334,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x464c…4632backed Juan Manuel La Serna72c23.55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.557237.5%27 W · 45 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77bd…e48fbacked Juan Manuel La Serna51c22.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1515053.3%80 W · 70 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Juan Manuel La Serna66c22.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7384963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5676…7da7backed Juan Manuel La Serna80c20.64$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.133342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Juan Manuel La Serna67c18.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c1c…b4f1backed Juan Manuel La Serna69c17.9$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5518166.9%121 W · 60 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf1…c28cbacked Juan Manuel La Serna76c15.7$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.71353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick65cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Juan Manuel La Serna65c15.47$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4285742.8%367 W · 490 L-23.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ec…e521backed Juan Manuel La Serna78c15.02$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.322360.9%14 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x586d…fb12backed Juan Manuel La Serna76c14.28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4821172%152 W · 59 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.