Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd903eaec28ea01f36d662d5c9331739bd5724efe32b05c72650f9699c91d115e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d85…6008backed Yes | 0c | 9,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 1,003$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 599.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…4c54backed Yes | 13c | 475.8$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 438.79$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 74c | 265.22$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 66c | 254.56$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.33 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 52c | 143.83$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 49c | 143.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 23c | 141.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 25c | 139.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 55c | 137.18$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…43dcbacked Yes | 44c | 127.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 48c | 124.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 46c | 121.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 50c | 114.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 113.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 99.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 67c | 95.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 89.41$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 66c | 86.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…1d95backed No | 51c | 84.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 50c | 77.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6b…5cd9backed Yes | 61c | 74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 56c | 71.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 68.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 66c | 68.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 30c | 66.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 36c | 66.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 66.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 64.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 29c | 55.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 47c | 54.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 71c | 47.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 34c | 46.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 34c | 41.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…610cbacked Yes | 41c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 57c | 39.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x408d…a9a3backed Yes | 31c | 38.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 51c | 38.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 53c | 36.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 56c | 36.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked Yes | 52c | 32.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 50c | 31.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 53c | 31.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…ab98backed Yes | 63c | 31.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 54c | 30.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 59c | 29.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 64c | 29.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 65c | 29.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 53c | 28.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 55c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 25.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 51c | 20.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 56c | 20.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 72c | 18.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 56c | 17.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 58-59°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.