Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a47508f8bcb8ae87fb72dd710bd957c031ad09caddb2bbfeed75f7df9696ff1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 55c | 1,104$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.87 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 38c | 540.89$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.22 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 79c | 436.85$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.32 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 33c | 356.95$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.49 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 51c | 254.84$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.84 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 14c | 210.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 186.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 58c | 162.74$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.63 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 21c | 159.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 140.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 123.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.72 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 40c | 113.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 61c | 113.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 35c | 103.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 30c | 95.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 19c | 84.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 81.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 76.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…ab98backed Yes | 49c | 72.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 56c | 66.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 63.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed No | 70c | 59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 45c | 58.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 58.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 24c | 57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 30c | 55.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 56c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 53c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 39c | 50.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 69c | 45.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 43.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 40c | 40.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 64c | 39.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 54c | 38.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 43c | 37.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 61c | 36.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 33c | 35.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x408d…a9a3backed Yes | 49c | 34.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 61c | 34.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 42c | 32.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 60c | 32.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…0e58backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 63c | 28.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked No | 68c | 24.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 61c | 24.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 66c | 21.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 73c | 18.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked No | 71c | 16.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 69c | 15.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 58-59°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.