MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd91f9610e660b2dc20190bb56238f3b68a4344fe77019a7b8d7aae6210071dd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- No Runof Yes Run, No Run
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $175,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2643…39aebacked No Run | 54c | 49,284$26,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,682.51 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Yes Run | 46c | 43,542$20,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,029.32 | 310 | 39%121 W · 189 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99e0…5052backed Yes Run | 50c | 8,925$4,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,461.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 50cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked No Run | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,999.99 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes Run | 47c | 5,821$2,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,731.19 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfc…6762backed No Run | 52c | 3,807$1,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,823.72 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed No Run | 50c | 3,173$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,586.22 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes Run | 47c | 1,793$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.58 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Yes Run | 6c | 580.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes Run | 47c | 530.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.57 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed No Run | 53c | 515$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.92 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…367dbacked Yes Run | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Yes Run | 54c | 451.93$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.07 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…71e9backed No Run | 53c | 366.81$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.45 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No Run | 59c | 322.01$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.67 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes Run | 47c | 209.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.65 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes Run | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…3d46backed No Run | 52c | 186.95$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed Yes Run | 54c | 172.46$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.35 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…b12dbacked Yes Run | 50c | 146.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.74 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Yes Run | 17c | 135.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba3…8d20backed Yes Run | 39c | 111.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No Run | 51c | 101.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked No Run | 52c | 100.72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No Run | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…eababacked No Run | 54c | 99.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ca…0d6bbacked Yes Run | 23c | 95.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0091…4198backed Yes Run | 26c | 88.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…4fd0backed No Run | 53c | 73.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x563d…0f60backed Yes Run | 49c | 44.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…7ba8backed Yes Run | 56c | 41.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No Run | 58c | 39.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…9e8dbacked No Run | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…0cccbacked Yes Run | 57c | 31.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b71…9fcdbacked No Run | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked No Run | 52c | 27.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes Run | 48c | 27.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes Run | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed No Run | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 188 | 55.3%104 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royalsthis page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City RoyalsMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.