Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester City vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd92a259b9d04ffb35652c907a2254d21a7bc57031da94499a2edfb566e3c6966
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 21c | 3,826$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.35 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…bc2dbacked Yes | 21c | 3,500$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked No | 79c | 2,612$2,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.97 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…62e7backed No | 79c | 2,001$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…6012backed No | 79c | 1,501$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Yes | 23c | 1,299$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.68 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked No | 77c | 834.62$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.96 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…9fd0backed Yes | 3c | 815$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 65c | 720.07$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.01 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 17c | 670.82$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.48 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…af02backed No | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -34%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Yes | 31c | 472.31$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.87 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74f7…9fd9backed Yes | 21c | 465.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480c…81f2backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked No | 78c | 445.9$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.1 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 77c | 312$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…af8cbacked Yes | 22c | 259.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 88 | 25%22 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Yes | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 214 | 45.8%98 W · 116 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked No | 79c | 148$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…79b5backed No | 77c | 143.68$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 20c | 135$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c37…4e9bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked No | 79c | 87.5$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 34c | 73.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 172 | 34.3%59 W · 113 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 79c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd3…06a8backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 147 | 54.4%80 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc8…1a55backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.45per pick | 35cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 157 | 26.8%42 W · 115 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 77c | 48.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 187 | 52.9%99 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 154 | 61%94 W · 60 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 74c | 23.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…04cbbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?this page
- Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-04-12?No won
- Will Manchester City win on 2025-04-12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.