Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd981b74c548fb9d5a209c1ec3febdf42937caeeeba1d8dfe8f17841e734fd024
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 575.02$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd556…6713backed Yes | 3c | 359.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 233.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 26c | 212.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 42c | 205.97$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.35 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 191.08$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 61c | 175$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 174.74$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 37c | 145.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 41c | 142.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 18c | 130.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 72c | 122.98$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 104.2$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 14c | 100.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…2ccbbacked Yes | 22c | 92.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 90.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 38c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 36c | 88.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e02…ce11backed Yes | 24c | 82.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 61c | 79.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 64.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 56.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 75c | 47.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 47.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 74c | 47.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ac…a769backed Yes | 39c | 41.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 64c | 40.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 39c | 40.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 39.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 36.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 39c | 35.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 32c | 34.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a63…0e48backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 39c | 29.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 64c | 27.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 62c | 27.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 25.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 60c | 21.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 77c | 19.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.