TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,602
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,007

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,602 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes55c960.89$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.651,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed No5c733.44$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.657313.7%10 W · 63 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes29c702.68$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.551,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No2c564.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.817,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No71c545.3$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.062,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c392.29$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.545,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No69c303.42$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.34,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No42c287$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.811,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes30c265.48$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6854735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No50c249.85$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.062,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No11c244.08$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.016,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes40c202.11$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.2710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No24c201.11$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.214,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No74c200$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14854853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes39c200$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.6688028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No74c176.72$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.7792678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No13c163.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.124,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes24c155.49$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.588,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes27c147.32$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.3259144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No74c120.8$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.832,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No70c118.54$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.214,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No65c117.53$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.332,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71a9…da0abacked No56c107.41$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84e3…3dfdbacked No69c105.96$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1114878.4%116 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes36c103.3$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3119137.2%71 W · 120 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No67c101.49$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf21…e0c1backed No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011163.1%70 W · 41 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.825,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked No67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6727248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed No18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No70c98.52$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.984,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3311…d659backed No52c96.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019551.8%101 W · 94 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No67c92.4$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8321370.9%151 W · 62 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick72cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No47c88.52$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.342,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No27c86.51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x497b…a32abacked Yes59c85.87$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5221633.8%73 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd30d…fd5dbacked No61c81.96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.996656.1%37 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes39c77.77$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.243,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1ac…a769backed Yes39c72.51$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.231741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26cb…a394backed Yes39c72.51$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2312437.1%46 W · 78 L-17.5wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked No56c72.44$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8732440.1%130 W · 194 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb24…d79fbacked Yes32c70$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.63542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c65.2$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.999,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No64c57.2$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.643,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93e…7434backed No43c56.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5513337.6%50 W · 83 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes30c55.1$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.481,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No49c53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.914,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No22c52.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2679947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes41c50.63$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.874,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes69c49.23$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.446,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No69c43.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3047175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf956…9bf0backed Yes50c42.32$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.323351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No59c40.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9985049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6efa…1a9bbacked No50c40.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0066…20a1backed No71c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.48865.9%58 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.81,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No61c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.43,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes57c38.75$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6415940.3%64 W · 95 L+0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes33c37.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9952322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5749…73abbacked Yes32c35.94$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4412348.8%60 W · 63 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a09…9b7fbacked No76c35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.615850.6%80 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b1e…f77bbacked No60c33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84367.4%29 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.751,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x335c…733fbacked Yes61c29.03$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1910262.7%64 W · 38 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No69c28.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7128360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No60c28.26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.962,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No69c28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.321,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No66c26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.224,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No59c25.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No70c22.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4351156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5504…665dbacked No74c22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2810055%55 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No69c21.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.71,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21b8…ea84backed Yes52c20.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.63557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb777…a722backed No71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.27852.6%41 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed No71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.214745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked No71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.216946.7%79 W · 90 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x33ab…149bbacked No64c15.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020569.8%143 W · 62 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9009…1621backed Yes77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4519663.3%124 W · 72 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.