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Asian League · resolved market

Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Shandong Taishan FCof Shanghai Shenhua FC, Shandong Taishan FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,188
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,587

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,188 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Asian League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Shandong Taishan FC77c3,796$2,935 inWon+$861.072,65040.2%1,065 W · 1,585 L-17.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Shanghai Shenhua FC22c2,732$601 inLost-$600.741,80436.6%660 W · 1,144 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Shanghai Shenhua FC17c1,518$258 inLost-$257.7914041.4%58 W · 82 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc48f…7527backed Shanghai Shenhua FC31c976.16$302 inLost-$30240%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Shandong Taishan FC67c831.64$557 inWon+$274.447444.6%33 W · 41 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+72.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Shanghai Shenhua FC18c450$81 inLost-$8198635.1%346 W · 640 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe419…8aedbacked Shanghai Shenhua FC14c330.6$47 inLost-$46.855927.1%16 W · 43 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2a…39bdbacked Shandong Taishan FC74c270.27$200 inWon+$70.271080%8 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed Shandong Taishan FC78c258.44$202 inWon+$56.868263.4%52 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90f…4148backed Shanghai Shenhua FC23c217.57$50 inLost-$50.04450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+20.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Shanghai Shenhua FC17c185.14$31 inLost-$30.9479842.4%338 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe368…e9edbacked Shanghai Shenhua FC28c153.57$43 inLost-$4310339.8%41 W · 62 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7eb…da58backed Shandong Taishan FC78c120$94 inWon+$26.42755.6%15 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Shanghai Shenhua FC19c114.51$22 inLost-$21.7628746.3%133 W · 154 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Shanghai Shenhua FC13c100$13 inLost-$132630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Shandong Taishan FC78c71.52$55 inWon+$16.072,07654.2%1,126 W · 950 L+34.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Shandong Taishan FC76c47.47$36 inWon+$11.3959046.6%275 W · 315 L-20.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Shandong Taishan FC80c41$33 inWon+$8.275743.7%331 W · 426 L-35.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x336e…2ae5backed Shandong Taishan FC78c38.46$30 inWon+$8.46683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick61cpaid+50.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ce2…a9d0backed Shandong Taishan FC78c23.29$18 inWon+$5.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Shandong Taishan FC77c17$13 inWon+$3.861,36545.5%621 W · 744 L+14.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.