Asian League · resolved market

Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fb6cbdfa2b327baa53eca6812971bba41c409c81bcfa316f811aa31cff6c01d

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Aug 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,439
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $30,663

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,439 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Asian League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x56f4…9ec5backed Under	25c	7,853$1,979 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,979.03	215	42.3%91 W · 124 L	+10.8wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc482…b505backed Under	11c	2,688$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.71	98	66.3%65 W · 33 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	57c	1,960$1,117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$843.39	1,882	50%941 W · 941 L	+30.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over	76c	1,750$1,328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$422.34	993	44.4%441 W · 552 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd239…2083backed Under	43c	1,628$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-3.4wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	75c	1,587$1,193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$394.21	2,620	42%1,101 W · 1,519 L	+51.4wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe337…4ad6backed Over	79c	1,442$1,139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$302.83	63	50.8%32 W · 31 L	+6.2wins	+0.10per pick	41cpaid	+135.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x568d…9a05backed Under	43c	1,000$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6bf…8380backed Under	42c	999.98$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.99	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+10%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over	74c	921.01$682 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$239.22	986	35.1%346 W · 640 L	-24.4wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over	73c	815.45$596 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$219.85	2,650	40.2%1,065 W · 1,585 L	-17.0wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f8a…01cdbacked Under	26c	769.23$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.75	77	42.9%33 W · 44 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Under	25c	717.24$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.74	140	41.4%58 W · 82 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over	58c	704.03$408 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$295.69	392	47.7%187 W · 205 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under	32c	595.25$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.05	1,804	36.6%660 W · 1,144 L	-28.0wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	76c	578.72$441 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.1	798	42.4%338 W · 460 L	-27.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4348…f08abacked Under	20c	548.75$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.72	111	50.5%56 W · 55 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4502…9eedbacked Over	77c	516.29$396 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.24	55	49.1%27 W · 28 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8412…7fc8backed Over	60c	501.67$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$201.67	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+111.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81f8…4078backed Under	17c	417.64$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Over	59c	412.9$242 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.77	358	33%118 W · 240 L	-6.4wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under	41c	347.64$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.47	1,196	46.2%553 W · 643 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf83d…2f1abacked Under	17c	317.17$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.77	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.13per pick	33cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Over	73c	314$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.38	185	44.9%83 W · 102 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed Under	42c	289.48$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.08	129	41.1%53 W · 76 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea6…428abacked Under	46c	265.96$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.34	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.29per pick	54cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Under	21c	219.24$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.04	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Under	21c	215.71$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.3	112	42%47 W · 65 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Under	21c	215.57$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.27	87	41.4%36 W · 51 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	58c	213.76$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.78	1,575	35.2%554 W · 1,021 L	-36.4wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe16f…a33fbacked Over	75c	194$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.99	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-3.3wins	-0.27per pick	61cpaid	-53.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Under	20c	190$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.22	337	49.6%167 W · 170 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Under	21c	174.29$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.6	64	45.3%29 W · 35 L	+3.2wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a00…9ac7backed Over	58c	172$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.24	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.42per pick	58cpaid	+72.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe419…8aedbacked Under	35c	164.8$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.71	59	27.1%16 W · 43 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9ea…9c73backed Over	72c	160.29$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.88	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf732…abb5backed Under	42c	148.77$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.48	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Under	21c	143.14$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.06	68	48.5%33 W · 35 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11ea…1676backed Under	42c	142.78$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.97	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe9f…014abacked Under	17c	120.48$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.68	70	47.1%33 W · 37 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c78…7d67backed Under	36c	120$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.6	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-3.2wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc230…cf59backed Under	51c	111.33$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.78	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Under	25c	103.85$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27d3…0764backed Over	58c	102.14$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.9	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.18per pick	46cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under	41c	100$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	590	46.6%275 W · 315 L	-20.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61d4…3593backed Over	77c	99.28$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.07	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	+3.6wins	+0.12per pick	36cpaid	+16%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xafd0…ebd0backed Over	65c	92$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.5	59	54.2%32 W · 27 L	+7.5wins	+0.13per pick	42cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over	69c	90$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.9	153	45.1%69 W · 84 L	-10.4wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under	18c	85$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.58	204	54.9%112 W · 92 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa69…02c1backed Under	26c	84.8$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.34	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+3.8wins	+0.14per pick	45cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9900…5cc9backed Over	74c	80.54$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.94	52	55.8%29 W · 23 L	+5.2wins	+0.10per pick	46cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Under	25c	79.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.76	230	43%99 W · 131 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda34…b1debacked Under	17c	78.96$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.62	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under	23c	78$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.66	1,084	41.5%450 W · 634 L	-39.6wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Under	41c	75.14$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.81	890	38.1%339 W · 551 L	+16.8wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bc1…eebebacked Over	73c	74$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.9	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Under	21c	74$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.38	287	46.3%133 W · 154 L	-8.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1737…2b2fbacked Over	74c	67.56$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.57	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	72c	63.47$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.02	237	53.2%126 W · 111 L	+9.7wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcea…545bbacked Under	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.10per pick	60cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2ab…0dc8backed Over	58c	51.72$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.72	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Under	43c	51.16$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-3.2wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x352a…ff24backed Over	58c	50$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.19per pick	64cpaid	+35.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over	57c	41$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.63	2,076	54.2%1,126 W · 950 L	+34.4wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Over	51c	35.29$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.29	190	45.8%87 W · 103 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbe4…4ab1backed Under	44c	34.09$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under	44c	32$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.18	496	52.8%262 W · 234 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c5c…d463backed Over	72c	30.56$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.56	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over	72c	27$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.55	641	42.7%274 W · 367 L	-31.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ab6…79b1backed Over	58c	25.86$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.86	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	62cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c0…482abacked Over	58c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	66cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5this page
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 0.5Over won
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 5.5Under won
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Shandong Taishan FC O/U 0.5Over won
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Shanghai Shenhua FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Shanghai Shenhua FC O/U 0.5Over won
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Shanghai Shenhua FC O/U 2.5Under won
Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)Shandong Taishan FC won
Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)Shandong Taishan FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event