Asian League · resolved market

Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf8da552c5da54267c468e9cd5cc082e2a36ffbe0612025ad9291ed6edeb586e

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Aug 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $97,045
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $109,977

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,045 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Asian League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0ee4…276fbacked Under	63c	10,000$6,250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,250	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	67cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x122b…ac59backed Under	1c	9,039$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.39	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	+7.2wins	+0.13per pick	31cpaid	+43.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x56f4…9ec5backed Under	29c	7,995$2,320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,320	215	42.3%91 W · 124 L	+10.8wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x34a1…7622backed Under	57c	6,853$3,881 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,880.69	137	40.1%55 W · 82 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	38c	5,181$1,969 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,212.42	870	43%374 W · 496 L	+24.1wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under	65c	4,341$2,818 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,817.62	2,650	40.2%1,065 W · 1,585 L	-17.0wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	37c	4,010$1,503 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,507.38	1,882	50%941 W · 941 L	+30.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76bc…fccabacked Under	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	86	39.5%34 W · 52 L	+7.4wins	+0.09per pick	31cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Under	62c	2,927$1,816 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,815.74	1,575	35.2%554 W · 1,021 L	-36.4wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7dc…21b9backed Over	38c	2,000$760 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,240	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ae…d35bbacked Under	63c	2,000$1,260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,260	58	44.8%26 W · 32 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7acc…c5b9backed Over	39c	1,578$616 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$962.88	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Under	59c	1,257$743 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$742.84	140	41.4%58 W · 82 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	43c	1,146$498 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$648.04	2,620	42%1,101 W · 1,519 L	+51.4wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over	33c	1,146$373 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$772.84	993	44.4%441 W · 552 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Over	27c	1,100$297 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$803	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f39…e279backed Under	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	45	33.3%15 W · 30 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x652b…e9c9backed Under	61c	983.61$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.17per pick	53cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Over	37c	976.91$364 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$612.43	358	33%118 W · 240 L	-6.4wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bf5…2307backed Over	30c	967.74$290 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$677.42	37	73%27 W · 10 L	+9.1wins	+0.24per pick	48cpaid	+53%equal weight	66+0.15 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	70c	959.04$668 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$290.82	798	42.4%338 W · 460 L	-27.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb5a…8445backed Under	6c	833.32$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.56	68	23.5%16 W · 52 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-35%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	70c	818.22$577 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$576.51	2,612	37.8%988 W · 1,624 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Under	61c	609.84$372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$372	52	57.7%30 W · 22 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8220…b081backed Under	51c	591.67$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.31	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8412…7fc8backed Over	39c	502.56$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$306.56	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+111.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec57…0fa7backed Under	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	+3.6wins	+0.12per pick	25cpaid	+66.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under	65c	455.62$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.83	1,804	36.6%660 W · 1,144 L	-28.0wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed Under	63c	315.87$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199	82	63.4%52 W · 30 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	64cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over	37c	296.29$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.47	1,196	46.2%553 W · 643 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Over	65c	268.02$174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.42	185	44.9%83 W · 102 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd8…6731backed Under	61c	245.9$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.61per pick	61cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe419…8aedbacked Under	73c	224.23$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.18	59	27.1%16 W · 43 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over	44c	220$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.97	1,084	41.5%450 W · 634 L	-39.6wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27d3…0764backed Over	38c	219.81$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.4	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.18per pick	46cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Over	38c	199.99$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Under	48c	184.9$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.16	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-6.1wins	-0.17per pick	36cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfa69…02c1backed Over	60c	172.27$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.99	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+3.8wins	+0.14per pick	45cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3daf…19ebbacked Over	30c	160$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Over	39c	146.07$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.6	436	50.5%220 W · 216 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed Under	53c	141.61$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.75	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-2.1wins	-0.15per pick	37cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed Under	42c	131.15$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.8	129	41.1%53 W · 76 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	49c	112.62$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.28	1,347	56.5%761 W · 586 L	+63.9wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over	55c	109.84$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.43	392	47.7%187 W · 205 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed Under	65c	98.2$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.83	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-4.6wins	-0.21per pick	53cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Over	50c	91.7$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.85	112	42%47 W · 65 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Over	50c	91.7$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.85	87	41.4%36 W · 51 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over	45c	89.85$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.67	1,278	50.2%642 W · 636 L	+14.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd170…a9d9backed Over	52c	85.89$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.23	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e69…553abacked Under	61c	81.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-3.4wins	-0.31per pick	49cpaid	-65.6%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x66ac…5e75backed Under	61c	81.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd82…6a10backed Under	61c	81.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x336e…2ae5backed Under	64c	78.13$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.23per pick	61cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Over	50c	74.14$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.07	64	45.3%29 W · 35 L	+3.2wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf83d…2f1abacked Under	48c	68.06$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.93	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.13per pick	33cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Over	40c	66.67$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.88	98	37.8%37 W · 61 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under	61c	55.67$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.9	590	46.6%275 W · 315 L	-20.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Under	43c	53.49$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	258	41.9%108 W · 150 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Over	39c	51.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.13	55	47.3%26 W · 29 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Over	38c	50$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.17	238	55%131 W · 107 L	+11.3wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88a9…e618backed Under	61c	49.18$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Under	61c	49.18$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Under	41c	48.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	110	40.9%45 W · 65 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over	38c	47.03$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.3	2,076	54.2%1,126 W · 950 L	+34.4wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Over	57c	46.93$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.37	66	50%33 W · 33 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Under	49c	43.89$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.61	337	49.6%167 W · 170 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ad5…b3edbacked Under	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	62.5%25 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	68cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over	25c	40$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	153	45.1%69 W · 84 L	-10.4wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbbe4…4ab1backed Over	38c	39.47$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.47	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d9…1059backed Over	57c	35.53$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.23	50	40%20 W · 30 L	-5.0wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over	70c	31.77$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.51	641	42.7%274 W · 367 L	-31.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1195…3763backed Under	60c	23$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	67cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37b0…799fbacked Under	58c	18.97$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	68	55.9%38 W · 30 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	61cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Under	64c	18.17$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.66	23	73.9%17 W · 6 L	+3.3wins	+0.14per pick	60cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x58e4…3876backed Under	64c	15.63$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	47	66%31 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	69cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 4.5this page
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 0.5Over won
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 5.5Under won
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Shandong Taishan FC O/U 0.5Over won
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Shanghai Shenhua FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Shanghai Shenhua FC O/U 0.5Over won
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Shanghai Shenhua FC O/U 2.5Under won
Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)Shandong Taishan FC won
Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)Shandong Taishan FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event