NHL · resolved market
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Trophy?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9b749ec53cddf49bd75fd6f9a48846b5f0486954295a65a09e8dc952690bccc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 26c | 948.63$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.62 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab1…8807backed Yes | 63c | 571$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.95 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2130…b64dbacked Yes | 58c | 503.24$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 36c | 453$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 65c | 401.38$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.15 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 76c | 319.74$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes | 70c | 293.99$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.55 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd349…63f8backed Yes | 68c | 281.84$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 25c | 263.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 68 | 11.8%8 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 71c | 257.76$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866e…919dbacked No | 34c | 160.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cd…316abacked Yes | 79c | 132.74$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed No | 34c | 117.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 73c | 117$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 37c | 107.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 69c | 105$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 201 | 37.8%76 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cac…988ebacked Yes | 71c | 98.54$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed No | 26c | 94.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17dc…aff8backed Yes | 63c | 78.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 31c | 70.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 32c | 59.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 66c | 57.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Yes | 75c | 55.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 72c | 53.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…ecf3backed Yes | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…163fbacked Yes | 65c | 46.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 34c | 44.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 73c | 35.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 39cpaid | +140.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d22…6743backed Yes | 58c | 30.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5add…9e47backed Yes | 73c | 27.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 164 | 47%77 W · 87 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…2b81backed Yes | 70c | 17.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Trophy?this page
- Will Cole Caufield win the 2025–2026 NHL Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Trophy?No won
- Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Trophy?No won
- Will Kevin Fiala win the 2025–2026 NHL Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Trophy?No won
- Will Kirill Kaprizov win the 2025–2026 NHL Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Trophy?No won
- Will Matthew Boldy win the 2025–2026 NHL Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Trophy?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.